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The long-run impact of zoning: Institutional hysteresis and durable capital in Seattle, 1920–2015

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  • Twinam, Tate

Abstract

This paper examines the coevolution of land use and zoning in Seattle from 1920 to 2015. Multiple waves of zoning and land use conversion data at the parcel level allow for a decomposition of the long-run effects of zoning and an exploration of the mechanisms through which zoning influenced future land use. In particular, I disentangle short-run impacts on land use from long-term institutional hysteresis, showing that the latter played a sizable role in shaping future land use. Additionally, data on variances allows me to examine early compliance levels, an underexplored topic with implications for long-run impacts. While much has been written about persistence in urban form due to purely economic forces, relatively little research has explored how institutional forces can entrench or alter this trajectory, and I find that such institutional constraints can have substantial influence.

Suggested Citation

  • Twinam, Tate, 2018. "The long-run impact of zoning: Institutional hysteresis and durable capital in Seattle, 1920–2015," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 155-169.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:73:y:2018:i:c:p:155-169
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2018.08.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Munneke, Henry J., 2005. "Dynamics of the urban zoning structure: An empirical investigation of zoning change," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 455-473, November.
    2. McMillen, Daniel P. & McDonald, John F., 1991. "A Markov Chain model of zoning change," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 257-270, September.
    3. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2005. "Urban Decline and Durable Housing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 345-375, April.
    4. Shertzer, Allison & Twinam, Tate & Walsh, Randall P., 2018. "Zoning and the economic geography of cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 20-39.
    5. Matthew A. Turner & Andrew Haughwout & Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2014. "Land Use Regulation and Welfare," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1341-1403, July.
    6. Murray, Cameron K. & Frijters, Paul, 2016. "Clean money, dirty system: Connected landowners capture beneficial land rezoning," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 99-114.
    7. Wallace, Nancy E., 1988. "The market effects of zoning undeveloped land: Does zoning follow the market?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 307-326, May.
    8. Ihlanfeldt, Keith R., 2007. "The effect of land use regulation on housing and land prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 420-435, May.
    9. Allison Shertzer & Tate Twinam & Randall P. Walsh, 2016. "Race, Ethnicity, and Discriminatory Zoning," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 217-246, July.
    10. Koster, Hans R.A. & van Ommeren, Jos & Rietveld, Piet, 2012. "Bombs, boundaries and buildings," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 631-641.
    11. Devin Bunten, 2017. "Is the Rent Too High? Aggregate Implications of Local Land-Use Regulation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-064, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Redfearn, Christian L., 2009. "Persistence in urban form: The long-run durability of employment centers in metropolitan areas," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 224-232, March.
    13. David R. Heise, 1972. "Employing Nominal Variables, Induced Variables, and Block Variables in Path Analyses," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 1(2), pages 147-173, November.
    14. Daniel P. McMillen & John F. McDonald, 2002. "Land Values In A Newly Zoned City," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 62-72, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Salim Furth & MaryJo Webster, 2023. "Single-Family Zoning and Race: Evidence From the Twin Cities," Housing Policy Debate, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 821-843, July.
    2. McFarlane, Nick & Hurley, Joe & Sun, Qian (Chayn), 2023. "Private-led land assembly and urban consolidation: The relative influence of regulatory zoning mechanisms," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Dietrich Earnhart & Sarah Jacobson & Yusuke Kuwayama & Richard T. Woodward, 2023. "Discretionary Exemptions from Environmental Regulation: Flexibility for Good or for Ill," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 99(2), pages 203-221.
    4. Fried, Travis & Verma, Rishi & Goodchild, Anne, 2024. "Ecommerce and environmental justice in metro Seattle," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    5. Shertzer, Allison & Twinam, Tate & Walsh, Randall P., 2022. "Zoning and segregation in urban economic history," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    K11; N92; R14; R52;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K11 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Property Law
    • N92 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • R52 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Land Use and Other Regulations

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