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Metropolitan area home prices and the mortgage interest deduction: Estimates and simulations from policy change

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  • Martin, Hal
  • Hanson, Andrew

Abstract

We simulate changes to metropolitan area home prices from reforming the Mortgage Interest Deduction (MID). Price simulations are based on an extended user cost model that incorporates two dimensions of behavioral change in home buyers: sensitivity of borrowing and the propensity to use tax deductions. We simulate prices with both inelastic and elastic supply. Our results show a wide range of price effects across metropolitan areas and prospective policies. Considering behavioral change and no supply elasticity, eliminating the MID results in average home price declines as steep as 13.5% in Washington, D.C., and as small as 3.5% in Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL. Converting the MID to a 15% refundable credit reduces prices by as much as 1.4% in San Jose, CA, San Francisco, CA, and Washington, D.C. and increases average price in other metropolitan areas by as much as 12.1% (Miami-Fort Lauderdale). Accounting for market elasticities produces price estimates that are on average 36% as large as standard estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin, Hal & Hanson, Andrew, 2016. "Metropolitan area home prices and the mortgage interest deduction: Estimates and simulations from policy change," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 12-23.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:59:y:2016:i:c:p:12-23
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2016.03.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin, Carolin & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2021. "Heterogeneous expectations, housing bubbles and tax policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 555-573.
    2. Hal Martin, 2018. "The Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on Local Home Values," Working Papers (Old Series) 1806, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    3. Ghoddusi, Hamed & Afkhami, Mohamad, 2019. "Valuation of mortgage interest deductibility under uncertainty: An option pricing approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 102-122.
    4. Dawkins, Casey J., 2023. "The geography of US homeownership tax expenditures," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA).
    5. David Splinter, 2019. "The Mortgage Interest Deduction: Causes of Fluctuations in a Procyclical Tax Expenditure," Public Finance Review, , vol. 47(5), pages 807-827, September.
    6. Yongsheng Jiang & Dong Zhao & Andrew Sanderford & Jing Du, 2018. "Effects of Bank Lending on Urban Housing Prices for Sustainable Development: A Panel Analysis of Chinese Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-16, February.
    7. Serena Fatica & Doris Prammer, 2018. "Housing and the Tax System: How Large Are the Distortions in the Euro Area?," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 299-342, June.
    8. Hanson, Andrew, 2020. "Taxes and Borrower Behavior: Evidence from the Mortgage Interest Deductibility Limit," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    9. MeiChi Huang, 2021. "Regime switches and permanent changes in impacts of housing risk factors on MSA‐level housing returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 310-342, January.
    10. Wagner, Gary A. & Rork, Jonathan C., 2023. "Does state tax reciprocity affect interstate commuting? Evidence from a natural experiment," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    11. Hembre, Erik & Dantas, Raissa, 2022. "Tax incentives and housing decisions: Effects of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    12. Austin J. Drukker, 2021. "Implications of a Mortgage Interest Credit for the United States," Public Finance Review, , vol. 49(4), pages 573-588, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; Housing subsidy; Mortgage interest deduction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R28 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Government Policy
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies

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