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Revenue Costs and Incentive Effects of the Mortgage Interest Deduction for Owner-Occupied Housing

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  • Poterba, James M.
  • Sinai, Todd

Abstract

We analyze how changes in the income tax deduction for home mortgage interest would affect loan-to-value ratios on owner-occupied homes, the distribution of income tax liabilities, and the consumption of housing services. Using the 2004 Survey of Consumer Finances, we estimate that repealing the mortgage interest deduction in 2003 would have raised federal and state income tax revenues by $72.4 billion in the absence of any household portfolio adjustments, but by only $58.5 billion if homeowners drew down financial assets to pay down their mortgage debt.

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  • Poterba, James M. & Sinai, Todd, 2011. "Revenue Costs and Incentive Effects of the Mortgage Interest Deduction for Owner-Occupied Housing," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 64(2), pages 531-564, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ntj:journl:v:64:y:2011:i:2:p:531-64
    DOI: 10.17310/ntj.2011.2S.05
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    Cited by:

    1. Bracke, Philippe & Hilber, Christian A.L. & Silva, Olmo, 2018. "Mortgage debt and entrepreneurship," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 52-66.
    2. Wodon, Quentin, 2014. "Comparing Itemized Tax Deductions across States: A Simple Decomposition Applied to Mortgage Interest Deductions," MPRA Paper 56940, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Jonathan Gruber & Amalie Jensen & Henrik Kleven, 2017. "Do People Respond to the Mortage Interest Deduction? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Denmark," NBER Working Papers 23600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Hal Martin, 2018. "The Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on Local Home Values," Working Papers (Old Series) 1806, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    5. Michael P Keane & Xiangling Liu, 2024. "Tax preferences and housing affordability: Exploration using a life-cycle model," IFS Working Papers W24/48, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    6. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2015. "A Model of Mortgage Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 1495-1554, August.
    7. Julia Braun & Hans-Peter Burghof & Julius Langer & Dag Einar Sommervoll, 2024. "The Volatility of Housing Prices: Do Different Types of Financial Intermediaries Affect Housing Market Cycles Differently?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 377-408, October.
    8. Ghoddusi, Hamed & Afkhami, Mohamad, 2019. "Valuation of mortgage interest deductibility under uncertainty: An option pricing approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 102-122.
    9. Pavlína Kirschnerová & Jana Janoušková, 2018. "Are Tax Expenditures of Individuals Only a Tool of Tax Optimisation?," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 24(3), pages 239-252, August.
    10. Dawkins, Casey J., 2023. "The geography of US homeownership tax expenditures," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA).
    11. David Albouy & Andrew Hanson, 2014. "Are Houses Too Big or In the Wrong Place? Tax Benefits to Housing and Inefficiencies in Location and Consumption," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 63-96.
    12. Lawrence M. Kessler & Donald Bruce, 2024. "A SALT on real estate? Housing market and migration responses to the limit on the state and local tax deduction," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(4), pages 683-704, October.
    13. Anthony A. DeFusco & Andrew Paciorek, 2017. "The Interest Rate Elasticity of Mortgage Demand: Evidence from Bunching at the Conforming Loan Limit," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 210-240, February.
    14. David Albouy & Andrew Hanson, 2014. "Tax Benefits to Housing and Inefficiencies in Location and Consumption," NBER Working Papers 19815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Philippe Bracke & Christian Hilber & Olmo Silva, 2014. "Homeownership and Entrepreneurship: The Role of Mortgage Debt and Commitment," CESifo Working Paper Series 5048, CESifo.
    16. Serena Fatica & Doris Prammer, 2018. "Housing and the Tax System: How Large Are the Distortions in the Euro Area?," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 299-342, June.
    17. Olsen, Edgar O. & Zabel, Jeffrey E., 2015. "US Housing Policy," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 887-986, Elsevier.
    18. Martin, Hal & Hanson, Andrew, 2016. "Metropolitan area home prices and the mortgage interest deduction: Estimates and simulations from policy change," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 12-23.
    19. Jianhua Wang & Hanyu Diao & Lulu Tou, 2019. "Research on the Influence Mechanism of Rational Consumers’ Food Safety Supervision Satisfaction," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-16, March.
    20. Hanson, Andrew, 2020. "Taxes and Borrower Behavior: Evidence from the Mortgage Interest Deductibility Limit," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    21. Andrew Hanson & Hal Martin, 2014. "Housing Market Distortions and the Mortgage Interest Deduction," Public Finance Review, , vol. 42(5), pages 582-607, September.
    22. Riley, Sarah F. & Ru, Hong Yu & Feng, Qing, 2013. "The User Cost of Low-Income Homeownership," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 43(2).
    23. Zhao, Yunhui, 2016. "Got Hurt for What You Paid? Revisiting Government Subsidy in the U.S. Mortgage Market," MPRA Paper 81083, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Aug 2017.
    24. Wenli Li & Edison Yu, 2022. "Real Estate Taxes and Home Value: Evidence from TCJA," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 125-151, January.
    25. Wenli Li & Edison Yu, 2020. "Real Estate Taxes and Home Value: Winners and Losers of TCJA," Working Papers 20-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

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