IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/regeco/v108y2024ics0166046224000723.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Capital as an anchor of agricultural employment: Evidence from the 1975 frost

Author

Listed:
  • Barsanetti, Bruno

Abstract

How do temporary shocks affect the spatial distribution of employment in agriculture? I investigate this question by examining the 1975 frost that damaged coffee trees in Brazil. I find that the frost persistently affected the spatial distribution of employment in agriculture. To identify the effects of the capital destruction from the frost, I compare changes in agricultural employment across local economies that had different coffee tree densities right before the frost and that were differently affected by the extreme weather. The frost resulted in a persistent decline in agricultural employment. The findings are consistent with a history versus expectations model in which fixed and specific capital (such as coffee trees) prevents multiple equilibria despite strategic complementarities in crop choice.

Suggested Citation

  • Barsanetti, Bruno, 2024. "Capital as an anchor of agricultural employment: Evidence from the 1975 frost," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:108:y:2024:i:c:s0166046224000723
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2024.104041
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166046224000723
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2024.104041?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Siodla, James, 2021. "Firms, fires, and firebreaks: The impact of the 1906 San Francisco disaster on business agglomeration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1991. "Increasing Returns, Industrialization, and Indeterminacy of Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 617-650.
    3. Bird, Julia & Straub, Stéphane, 2020. "The Brasília experiment: The heterogeneous impact of road access on spatial development in Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Fabian Waldinger, 2016. "Bombs, Brains, and Science: The Role of Human and Physical Capital for the Creation of Scientific Knowledge," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(5), pages 811-831, December.
    5. Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Marc Schramm, 2004. "The strategic bombing of German cities during World War II and its impact on city growth," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 201-218, April.
    6. Kruger, Diana I., 2007. "Coffee production effects on child labor and schooling in rural Brazil," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 448-463, March.
    7. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2008. "A Search For Multiple Equilibria In Urban Industrial Structure," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 29-65, February.
    8. Andrew Dillon & Valerie Mueller & Sheu Salau, 2011. "Migratory Responses to Agricultural Risk in Northern Nigeria," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1048-1061.
    9. Allen, Treb & Donaldson, Dave, 2022. "Persistence and path dependence: A primer," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    10. Ager, Philipp & Eriksson, Katherine & Hansen, Casper Worm & Lønstrup, Lars, 2020. "How the 1906 San Francisco earthquake shaped economic activity in the American West," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Martin Bell & Elin Charles-Edwards & Philipp Ueffing & John Stillwell & Marek Kupiszewski & Dorota Kupiszewska, 2015. "Internal Migration and Development: Comparing Migration Intensities Around the World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(1), pages 33-58, March.
    12. Paul Krugman, 1991. "History versus Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 651-667.
    13. Treb Allen & Dave Donaldson, 2020. "Persistence and Path Dependence in the Spatial Economy," NBER Working Papers 28059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Thomas J. Holmes & Sanghoon Lee, 2012. "Economies of Density versus Natural Advantage: Crop Choice on the Back Forty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 1-19, February.
    15. Miguel, Edward & Roland, Gérard, 2011. "The long-run impact of bombing Vietnam," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 1-15, September.
    16. André Gröger & Yanos Zylberberg, 2016. "Internal Labor Migration as a Shock Coping Strategy: Evidence from a Typhoon," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 123-153, April.
    17. Lin, Jeffrey & Rauch, Ferdinand, 2022. "What future for history dependence in spatial economics?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    18. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2002. "Bones, Bombs, and Break Points: The Geography of Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1269-1289, December.
    19. Rosenthal, Stuart S. & Strange, William C., 2004. "Evidence on the nature and sources of agglomeration economies," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2119-2171, Elsevier.
    20. W. Walker Hanlon, 2017. "Temporary Shocks and Persistent Effects in Urban Economies: Evidence from British Cities after the U.S. Civil War," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(1), pages 67-79, March.
    21. Samuel Bazzi, 2017. "Wealth Heterogeneity and the Income Elasticity of Migration," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 219-255, April.
    22. James Feigenbaum & James Lee & Filippo Mezzanotti, 2022. "Capital Destruction and Economic Growth: The Effects of Sherman's March, 1850–1920," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 301-342, October.
    23. Justin Gallagher, 2014. "Learning about an Infrequent Event: Evidence from Flood Insurance Take-Up in the United States," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 206-233, July.
    24. Melanie Morten & Jaqueline Oliveira, 2024. "The Effects of Roads on Trade and Migration: Evidence from a Planned Capital City," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 389-421, April.
    25. Gray, Clark & Mueller, Valerie, 2012. "Drought and Population Mobility in Rural Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 134-145.
    26. Guy Michaels & Ferdinand Rauch & Stephen J. Redding, 2012. "Urbanization and Structural Transformation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 535-586.
    27. Julieta Caunedo & Namrata Kala & Haimeng Zhang, 2022. "Economies of Density and Congestion in the Sharing Economy," NBER Working Papers 30788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Brown, Philip & Daigneault, Adam J. & Tjernström, Emilia & Zou, Wenbo, 2018. "Natural disasters, social protection, and risk perceptions," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 310-325.
    29. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
    30. Robalino, Juan A. & Pfaff, Alexander, 2012. "Contagious development: Neighbor interactions in deforestation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 427-436.
    31. Bin, Okmyung & Landry, Craig E., 2013. "Changes in implicit flood risk premiums: Empirical evidence from the housing market," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 361-376.
    32. Abel Schumann, 2014. "Persistence of Population Shocks: Evidence from the Occupation of West Germany after World War II," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 189-205, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hanlon, W.Walker & Heblich, Stephan, 2022. "History and urban economics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    2. Stephen J. Redding, 2013. "Economic Geography: A Review of the Theoretical and Empirical Literature," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Daniel Bernhofen & Rod Falvey & David Greenaway & Udo Kreickemeier (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of International Trade, chapter 16, pages 497-531, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Rafael González‐Val & Javier Silvestre, 2023. "War and city size: The asymmetric effects of the Spanish Civil War," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(4), pages 898-921, September.
    4. Barsanetti, Bruno, 2021. "Cities on pre-Columbian paths," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    5. Stephen J. Redding, 2010. "The Empirics Of New Economic Geography," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 297-311, February.
    6. Christian Ochsner, 2017. "Dismantled once, diverged forever? A quasi-natural experiment of Red Army misdeeds in post-WWII Europe," ifo Working Paper Series 240, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    7. Testa, Patrick A., 2021. "Shocks and the spatial distribution of economic activity: The role of institutions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 791-810.
    8. Accetturo, Antonio & Cascarano, Michele & de Blasio, Guido, 2024. "Pirate attacks and the shape of the Italian urban system," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    9. Breinlich, Holger & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2014. "Regional Growth and Regional Decline," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 4, pages 683-779, Elsevier.
    10. Lin, Jeffrey & Rauch, Ferdinand, 2022. "What future for history dependence in spatial economics?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    11. Allen, Treb & Donaldson, Dave, 2022. "Persistence and path dependence: A primer," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    12. Kohei Takeda & Atsushi Yamagishi, 2024. "The economic dynamics of city structure: Evidence from Hiroshima's recovery," CEP Discussion Papers dp1988, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    13. Jan David Bakker & Christopher Parsons & Ferdinand Rauch, 2020. "Migration and Urbanization in Post-Apartheid South Africa," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(2), pages 509-532.
    14. Stephen J. Redding & Daniel M. Sturm & Nikolaus Wolf, 2011. "History and Industry Location: Evidence from German Airports," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 814-831, August.
    15. Berger, Thor & Enflo, Kerstin, 2017. "Locomotives of local growth: The short- and long-term impact of railroads in Sweden," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 124-138.
    16. Christian Ochsner, 2023. "Hostility, Population Sorting, and Backwardness: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Red Army after WWII," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp768, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    17. repec:esx:essedp:729 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Siodla, James, 2021. "Firms, fires, and firebreaks: The impact of the 1906 San Francisco disaster on business agglomeration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    19. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Stephen J. Redding & Daniel M. Sturm & Nikolaus Wolf, 2015. "The Economics of Density: Evidence From the Berlin Wall," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 2127-2189, November.
    20. Venables, Anthony & Duranton, Gilles, 2018. "Place-Based Policies for Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 12889, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Tommaso Giommoni & Gabriel Loumeau, 2022. "Taxation with a Grain of Salt: The Long-Term Effect of Fiscal Policy on Local Development," CESifo Working Paper Series 9997, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Path dependence; Capital destruction; History versus expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:108:y:2024:i:c:s0166046224000723. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/regec .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.