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Temporary Shocks and Persistent Effects in Urban Economies: Evidence from British Cities after the U.S. Civil War

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  • W. Walker Hanlon

    (UCLA and NBER)

Abstract

Can a temporary economic shock to an important local industry influence long-run city population? To answer this question I study the large temporary shock to British cities caused by the U.S. CivilWar (1861–1865), which reduced cotton supplies to Britain’s important cotton textile industry. I show that this event temporarily reduced the growth rate of cities specializing in cotton textile production, relative to other English cities, and led to a persistent change in the level of city population.

Suggested Citation

  • W. Walker Hanlon, 2017. "Temporary Shocks and Persistent Effects in Urban Economies: Evidence from British Cities after the U.S. Civil War," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(1), pages 67-79, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:99:y:2017:i:1:p:67-79
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    Cited by:

    1. Siodla, James, 2021. "Firms, fires, and firebreaks: The impact of the 1906 San Francisco disaster on business agglomeration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Bakker, Jan David & Maurer, Stephan & Pischke, Jörn-Steffen & Rauch, Ferdinand, 2018. "Of mice and merchants: trade and growth in the Iron Age," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 91679, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Andrews, Michael J. & Whalley, Alexander, 2022. "150 years of the geography of innovation," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    4. Gan Jin & Günther G. Schulze, 2024. "Historical Legacies and Urbanization: Evidence from Chinese Concessions," Discussion Paper Series 47 JEL Classification: N9, Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg, revised Feb 2024.
    5. Ager, Philipp & Eriksson, Katherine & Hansen, Casper Worm & Lønstrup, Lars, 2020. "How the 1906 San Francisco earthquake shaped economic activity in the American West," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Stephan Maurer & Ferdinand Rauch, 2023. "Economic geography aspects of the Panama Canal," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(1), pages 142-162.
    7. Max Nathan, 2023. "Critical Commentary: The city and the virus," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 60(8), pages 1346-1364, June.
    8. Zhang, Haoran, 2023. "Coal busts and urban recovery: Evidence from China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    9. Barati Mehdi, 2019. "Punishment Severity and Crime: The Case of Arkansas," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-23, March.
    10. Hanlon, W.Walker & Heblich, Stephan, 2022. "History and urban economics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    11. Brian Beach & W. Walker Hanlon, 2018. "Can Migration Make Deadly Recessions Look Healthy? Evidence From Large-scale Linked Microdata," Working Papers 18-22, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    12. Allen, Treb & Donaldson, Dave, 2022. "Persistence and path dependence: A primer," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    13. Vellore Arthi & Brian Beach & W. Walker Hanlon, 2017. "Estimating the Recession-Mortality Relationship when Migration Matters," NBER Working Papers 23507, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Lin, Jeffrey & Rauch, Ferdinand, 2022. "What future for history dependence in spatial economics?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    15. Rui Du & Junfu Zhang, 2019. "Walled cities and urban density in China," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(3), pages 1517-1539, June.
    16. Ager, Philipp & Hansen, Casper Worm & Lønstrup, Lars, 2018. "Shaking Up the Equilibrium: Natural Disasters, Economic Activity, and Immigration," Discussion Papers on Economics 2/2018, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    17. Marius Klein & Ferdinand Rauch, 2023. "Market Access and the Arrow of Time," CESifo Working Paper Series 10279, CESifo.
    18. Twinam, Tate, 2020. "Trade Shocks and Growth: The Impact of the Quartz Crisis in Switzerland," SocArXiv twscm, Center for Open Science.
    19. Khan,Amjad Muhammad & Park,Hogeun & Roberts,Mark & Wibisana,Putu Sanjiwacika, 2022. "When the Lights Go Out : The Economic Impacts of Covid-19 on Cities Globally," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10189, The World Bank.
    20. Mathieu Sanch-Maritan & Lionel Vedrine, 2019. "Are larger labor market more resilient? Evidence of the French army restructuring on exit from unemployment," Working Papers hal-02332809, HAL.
    21. Marein, Brian, 2022. "Colonial Roads and Regional Inequality," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    22. Twinam, Tate, 2022. "Trade competition and migration: Evidence from the quartz crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    23. Yamasaki, Junichi & Nakajima, Kentaro & Teshima, Kensuke, 2021. "From Samurai to Skyscrapers: How Historical Lot Fragmentation Shapes Tokyo," TDB-CAREE Discussion Paper Series E-2020-02, Teikoku Databank Center for Advanced Empirical Research on Enterprise and Economy, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    24. Jan David Bakker & Stephan Maurer & Jörn-Steffen Pischke & Ferdinand Rauch, 2021. "Of Mice and Merchants: Connectedness and the Location of Economic Activity in the Iron Age," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(4), pages 652-665, October.
    25. Jedwab, Remi & Johnson, Noel D. & Koyama, Mark, 2024. "Pandemics and cities: Evidence from the Black Death and the long-run," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).

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