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A competing risk model for the reliability of cylinder liners in marine Diesel engines

Author

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  • Bocchetti, D.
  • Giorgio, M.
  • Guida, M.
  • Pulcini, G.

Abstract

In this paper, a competing risk model is proposed to describe the reliability of the cylinder liners of a marine Diesel engine. Cylinder liners presents two dominant failure modes: wear degradation and thermal cracking. The wear process is described through a stochastic process, whereas the failure time due to the thermal cracking is described by the Weibull distribution. The use of the proposed model allows performing goodness-of-fit test and parameters estimation on the basis of both wear and failure data. Moreover, it enables reliability estimates of the state of the liners to be obtained and the hierarchy of the failure mechanisms to be determined for any given age and wear level of the liner. The model has been applied to a real data set: 33 cylinder liners of Sulzer RTA 58 engines, which equip twin ships of the Grimaldi Group. Estimates of the liner reliability and of other quantities of interest under the competing risk model are obtained, as well as the conditional failure probability and mean residual lifetime, given the survival age and the accumulated wear. Furthermore, the model has been used to estimate the probability that a liner fails due to one of the failure modes when both of these modes act.

Suggested Citation

  • Bocchetti, D. & Giorgio, M. & Guida, M. & Pulcini, G., 2009. "A competing risk model for the reliability of cylinder liners in marine Diesel engines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(8), pages 1299-1307.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:94:y:2009:i:8:p:1299-1307
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2009.01.010
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    1. Liu, Yao & Wang, Yashun & Fan, Zhengwei & Bai, Guanghan & Chen, Xun, 2021. "Reliability modeling and a statistical inference method of accelerated degradation testing with multiple stresses and dependent competing failure processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    2. Sarhan, Ammar M. & Hamilton, David C. & Smith, B., 2010. "Statistical analysis of competing risks models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(9), pages 953-962.
    3. Ahmed Ragab & Soumaya Yacout & Mohamed-Salah Ouali & Hany Osman, 2019. "Prognostics of multiple failure modes in rotating machinery using a pattern-based classifier and cumulative incidence functions," Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 255-274, January.
    4. Wang, Chaonan & Xing, Liudong & Levitin, Gregory, 2013. "Reliability analysis of multi-trigger binary systems subject to competing failures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 9-17.
    5. Che, Haiyang & Zeng, Shengkui & Guo, Jianbin & Wang, Yao, 2018. "Reliability modeling for dependent competing failure processes with mutually dependent degradation process and shock process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 168-178.
    6. Cui, Lirong & Wu, Bei, 2019. "Extended Phase-type models for multistate competing risk systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 1-16.
    7. Ebrahimi, Nader & Shehadeh, Mahmoud, 2015. "Assessing the reliability of components with micro- and nano-structures when they are part a multi-scale system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 13-20.
    8. Huynh, K.T. & Barros, A. & Bérenguer, C. & Castro, I.T., 2011. "A periodic inspection and replacement policy for systems subject to competing failure modes due to degradation and traumatic events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(4), pages 497-508.
    9. Huynh, K.T. & Castro, I.T. & Barros, A. & Bérenguer, C., 2012. "Modeling age-based maintenance strategies with minimal repairs for systems subject to competing failure modes due to degradation and shocks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 140-151.
    10. Chen, Ying & Yang, Liu & Ye, Cui & Kang, Rui, 2015. "Failure mechanism dependence and reliability evaluation of non-repairable system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 273-283.
    11. Wu, Di & Yan, Xiangbin & Peng, Rui & Wu, Shaomin, 2020. "Risk-attitude-based defense strategy considering proactive strike, preventive strike and imperfect false targets," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    12. Li, Ying Yi & Chen, Ying & Yuan, Zeng Hui & Tang, Ning & Kang, Rui, 2017. "Reliability analysis of multi-state systems subject to failure mechanism dependence based on a combination method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 109-123.
    13. Wang, Yujie & Xing, Liudong & Levitin, Gregory & Huang, Ning, 2018. "Probabilistic competing failure analysis in phased-mission systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 37-51.
    14. Jingyi Liu & Yugang Zhang & Bifeng Song, 2019. "Reliability and maintenance modeling for competing failures with intermission considered," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 233(5), pages 898-907, October.
    15. Wang, Chaonan & Xing, Liudong & Peng, Rui & Pan, Zhusheng, 2017. "Competing failure analysis in phased-mission systems with multiple functional dependence groups," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 24-33.
    16. Zhao, Guilin & Xing, Liudong, 2021. "Reliability analysis of body sensor networks subject to random isolation time," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    17. Man-Ho Ling & Narayanaswamy Balakrishnan & Chenxi Yu & Hon Yiu So, 2021. "Inference for One-Shot Devices with Dependent k -Out-of- M Structured Components under Gamma Frailty," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(23), pages 1-24, November.
    18. Zhaojun Yang & Xiaoxu Li & Chuanhai Chen & Hongxun Zhao & Dingyu Yang & Jinyan Guo & Wei Luo, 2019. "Reliability assessment of the spindle systems with a competing risk model," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 233(2), pages 226-234, April.
    19. Coolen-Maturi, Tahani & Coolen, Frank P.A., 2014. "Nonparametric predictive inference for combined competing risks data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 87-97.
    20. Wang, Yujie & Xing, Liudong & Wang, Honggang & Levitin, Gregory, 2015. "Combinatorial analysis of body sensor networks subject to probabilistic competing failures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 388-398.

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