IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v92y2007i10p1344-1352.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Bayes linear approach to inference and decision-making for a reliability programme

Author

Listed:
  • Goldstein, Michael
  • Bedford, Tim

Abstract

In reliability modelling it is conventional to build sophisticated models of the probabilistic behaviour of the component lifetimes in a system in order to deduce information about the probabilistic behaviour of the system lifetime. Decision modelling of the reliability programme requires a priori, therefore, an even more sophisticated set of models in order to capture the evidence the decision maker believes may be obtained from different types of data acquisition.

Suggested Citation

  • Goldstein, Michael & Bedford, Tim, 2007. "The Bayes linear approach to inference and decision-making for a reliability programme," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(10), pages 1344-1352.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:92:y:2007:i:10:p:1344-1352
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2006.09.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095183200600202X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2006.09.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Goldstein, 2004. "Bayes linear kinematics and Bayes linear Bayes graphical models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 91(2), pages 425-446, June.
    2. A. O'Hagan & E. B. Glennie & R. E. Beardsall, 1992. "Subjective Modelling and Bayes Linear Estimation in the Uk Water Industry," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 41(3), pages 563-577, November.
    3. Craig P. S & Goldstein M. & Rougier J. C & Seheult A. H, 2001. "Bayesian Forecasting for Complex Systems Using Computer Simulators," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 717-729, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John Quigley & Kevin J. Wilson & Lesley Walls & Tim Bedford, 2013. "A Bayes Linear Bayes Method for Estimation of Correlated Event Rates," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(12), pages 2209-2224, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiaoyu Xiong & Benjamin D. Youngman & Theodoros Economou, 2021. "Data fusion with Gaussian processes for estimation of environmental hazard events," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), May.
    2. Campbell, Katherine, 2006. "Statistical calibration of computer simulations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 1358-1363.
    3. Mira, José & Sánchez, María Jesús, 2004. "Prediction of deterministic functions: an application of a Gaussian kriging model to a time series outlier problem," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 477-491, January.
    4. Werner, Christoph & Bedford, Tim & Cooke, Roger M. & Hanea, Anca M. & Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo, 2017. "Expert judgement for dependence in probabilistic modelling: A systematic literature review and future research directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(3), pages 801-819.
    5. M Revie & T Bedford & L Walls, 2010. "Evaluation of elicitation methods to quantify Bayes linear models," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 224(4), pages 322-332, December.
    6. Arhonditsis, George B. & Qian, Song S. & Stow, Craig A. & Lamon, E. Conrad & Reckhow, Kenneth H., 2007. "Eutrophication risk assessment using Bayesian calibration of process-based models: Application to a mesotrophic lake," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 208(2), pages 215-229.
    7. David Randell & Michael Goldstein & Philip Jonathan, 2014. "Bayes linear variance structure learning for inspection of large scale physical systems," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 228(1), pages 3-18, February.
    8. O’Hagan, A., 2006. "Bayesian analysis of computer code outputs: A tutorial," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 1290-1300.
    9. F. P. A. Coolen & M Goldstein & D. A. Wooff, 2007. "Using Bayesian statistics to support testing of software systems," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 221(1), pages 85-93, March.
    10. K J Wilson & M Farrow, 2010. "Bayes linear kinematics in the analysis of failure rates and failure time distributions," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 224(4), pages 309-321, December.
    11. John Quigley & Kevin J. Wilson & Lesley Walls & Tim Bedford, 2013. "A Bayes Linear Bayes Method for Estimation of Correlated Event Rates," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(12), pages 2209-2224, December.
    12. Shahsavani, D. & Grimvall, A., 2009. "An adaptive design and interpolation technique for extracting highly nonlinear response surfaces from deterministic models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(7), pages 1173-1182.
    13. Nott, David J. & Marshall, Lucy & Fielding, Mark & Liong, Shie-Yui, 2014. "Mixtures of experts for understanding model discrepancy in dynamic computer models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 491-505.
    14. Reichert, P. & White, G. & Bayarri, M.J. & Pitman, E.B., 2011. "Mechanism-based emulation of dynamic simulation models: Concept and application in hydrology," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 1638-1655, April.
    15. Bernd Kraan & Tim Bedford, 2005. "Probabilistic Inversion of Expert Judgments in the Quantification of Model Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(6), pages 995-1006, June.
    16. Zhang, Wenjuan & Wang, Wenbin, 2014. "Cost modelling in maintenance strategy optimisation for infrastructure assets with limited data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 33-41.
    17. Gyanendra Pokharel & Rob Deardon, 2022. "Emulation‐based inference for spatial infectious disease transmission models incorporating event time uncertainty," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 49(1), pages 455-479, March.
    18. Jones, Matthew & Goldstein, Michael & Randell, David & Jonathan, Philip, 2021. "Bayes linear analysis for ordinary differential equations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:92:y:2007:i:10:p:1344-1352. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.