IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v247y2024ics0951832024001777.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The return of the design points

Author

Listed:
  • Breitung, Karl

Abstract

In the last decades simulation methods for calculating failure probabilities in structural reliability have become increasingly popular. The FORM/SORM concepts were discarded based on the claim that these methods do not work well for high dimensional problems and for multiple design points. From this it was concluded that design points are quite useless. This is based a confusion between the design point concept and the FORM/SORM approximation method. The Lemma of Hohenbichler shows that for small probabilities the probability content of the failure domain is concentrated around the design points, so these points are important. Their positions give further the conditional means of the points in the failure domains. Then it is proven that most of the alternative estimation methods, surrogate models, cross entropy, subset simulation and line sampling use implicitly design point concepts. All these approaches end up with a point clouds around the design points. Finally design point based methods are derived which are efficient for high dimensions and multiple design points.

Suggested Citation

  • Breitung, Karl, 2024. "The return of the design points," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:247:y:2024:i:c:s0951832024001777
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110103
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832024001777
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2024.110103?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Enrico Zio, 2013. "The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, Springer, edition 127, number 978-1-4471-4588-2, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michele Compare & Francesco Di Maio & Enrico Zio & Fausto Carlevaro & Sara Mattafirri, 2016. "Improving scheduled maintenance by missing data reconstruction: A double-loop Monte Carlo approach," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 230(5), pages 502-511, October.
    2. Di Maio, Francesco & Pettorossi, Chiara & Zio, Enrico, 2023. "Entropy-driven Monte Carlo simulation method for approximating the survival signature of complex infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    3. Wang, Fan & Li, Heng, 2018. "System reliability under prescribed marginals and correlations: Are we correct about the effect of correlations?," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 94-104.
    4. Tito G. Amaral & Vitor Fernão Pires & Armando Cordeiro & Daniel Foito & João F. Martins & Julia Yamnenko & Tetyana Tereschenko & Liudmyla Laikova & Ihor Fedin, 2023. "Incipient Fault Diagnosis of a Grid-Connected T-Type Multilevel Inverter Using Multilayer Perceptron and Walsh Transform," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-18, March.
    5. Penttinen, Jussi-Pekka & Niemi, Arto & Gutleber, Johannes & Koskinen, Kari T. & Coatanéa, Eric & Laitinen, Jouko, 2019. "An open modelling approach for availability and reliability of systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 387-399.
    6. Rocco, Claudio M. & Moronta, José & Ramirez-Marquez, José E. & Barker, Kash, 2017. "Effects of multi-state links in network community detection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 46-56.
    7. Babykina, Génia & Brînzei, Nicolae & Aubry, Jean-François & Deleuze, Gilles, 2016. "Modeling and simulation of a controlled steam generator in the context of dynamic reliability using a Stochastic Hybrid Automaton," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 115-136.
    8. Compare, Michele & Bellani, Luca & Zio, Enrico, 2017. "Reliability model of a component equipped with PHM capabilities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 4-11.
    9. Gascard, Eric & Simeu-Abazi, Zineb, 2018. "Quantitative Analysis of Dynamic Fault Trees by means of Monte Carlo Simulations: Event-Driven Simulation Approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 487-504.
    10. Shiyu Chen & Wei Wang & Enrico Zio, 2021. "A Simulation-Based Multi-Objective Optimization Framework for the Production Planning in Energy Supply Chains," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-27, May.
    11. Kim, Hyeonmin & Kim, Jung Taek & Heo, Gyunyoung, 2018. "Failure rate updates using condition-based prognostics in probabilistic safety assessments," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 225-233.
    12. Martin Folch-Calvo & Francisco Brocal-Fernández & Cristina González-Gaya & Miguel A. Sebastián, 2020. "Analysis and Characterization of Risk Methodologies Applied to Industrial Parks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-35, September.
    13. Cadini, F. & Gioletta, A., 2016. "A Bayesian Monte Carlo-based algorithm for the estimation of small failure probabilities of systems affected by uncertainties," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 15-27.
    14. Turati, Pietro & Pedroni, Nicola & Zio, Enrico, 2016. "Advanced RESTART method for the estimation of the probability of failure of highly reliable hybrid dynamic systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 117-126.
    15. Gu Dongwei & Zhong Yuhong & Hu Yanjuan & Chen Guang & Wang Zhixin & Li Nianhuan, 2024. "Integrated availability importance measure for multi-state complex systems analysis," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 238(3), pages 578-590, June.
    16. Sergio Copiello, 2020. "Business as Usual with Article Processing Charges in the Transition towards OA Publishing: A Case Study Based on Elsevier," Publications, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, January.
    17. Shafiee, Mahmood & Finkelstein, Maxim & Bérenguer, Christophe, 2015. "An opportunistic condition-based maintenance policy for offshore wind turbine blades subjected to degradation and environmental shocks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 463-471.
    18. Su, Huai & Zhang, Jinjun & Zio, Enrico & Yang, Nan & Li, Xueyi & Zhang, Zongjie, 2018. "An integrated systemic method for supply reliability assessment of natural gas pipeline networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 489-501.
    19. Naseri, Masoud & Baraldi, Piero & Compare, Michele & Zio, Enrico, 2016. "Availability assessment of oil and gas processing plants operating under dynamic Arctic weather conditions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 66-82.
    20. Michel Batteux & Tatiana Prosvirnova & Antoine Rauzy, 2017. "AltaRica 3.0 assertions: The whys and wherefores," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 231(6), pages 691-700, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:247:y:2024:i:c:s0951832024001777. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.