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Improving CubeSat reliability: Subsystem redundancy or improved testing?

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  • Bouwmeester, J.
  • Menicucci, A.
  • Gill, E.K.A.

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to investigate which approach would lead to more reliable CubeSats: full subsystem redundancy or improved testing. Based on data from surveys, the reliability of satellites and subsystems is estimated using a Kaplan–Meier estimator. Subsequently, a variety of reliability models is defined and their maximum likelihood estimates are compared. A product of a Lognormal distribution addressing immaturity failure and a Gompertz distribution addressing wear-out is found to best represent CubeSat reliability. Bayesian inference is used to find realistic wear-out parameters by using failure data of small satellites. Subsystem reliability estimates are subsequently found using a similar approach. A reliability model for CubeSats with redundant subsystems is established, verified and applied in a Monte Carlo simulation. The results are compared with a model for reduced immaturity failure. Allocating resources to reduction of immaturity failures through improved testing is considered to be superior to allocating these resources to the implementation of subsystem redundancy.

Suggested Citation

  • Bouwmeester, J. & Menicucci, A. & Gill, E.K.A., 2022. "Improving CubeSat reliability: Subsystem redundancy or improved testing?," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:220:y:2022:i:c:s0951832021007584
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.108288
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Castet, Jean-Francois & Saleh, Joseph H., 2010. "Single versus mixture Weibull distributions for nonparametric satellite reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 295-300.
    2. Castet, Jean-Francois & Saleh, Joseph H., 2009. "Satellite and satellite subsystems reliability: Statistical data analysis and modeling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(11), pages 1718-1728.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Yang, Xiaohui & Liu, Kang & Leng, Zhengyang & Liu, Tao & Zhang, Liufang & Mei, Linghao, 2022. "Multi-dimensions analysis of solar hybrid CCHP systems with redundant design," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).

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