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A pragmatic approach to modeling common cause failures in multi-unit PSA for nuclear power plant sites with a large number of units

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  • Kim, Dong-San
  • Park, Jin Hee
  • Lim, Ho-Gon

Abstract

One of the major issues in multi-unit probabilistic safety assessment (MUPSA) is how to deal with inter-unit common cause failures (CCFs). Most existing studies on MUPSA have focused on two-unit nuclear power plant (NPP) sites, where it is often not difficult to extend currently available CCF modeling approaches, such as the Alpha Factor and Beta Factor models, to address inter-unit CCFs. However, when considering an NPP site with three or more units, these approaches can be inapplicable or yield overly conservative results. This paper proposes a pragmatic approach to modeling CCFs for application to MUPSA involving a large number of NPP units. Provided here are the criteria for selecting CCF groups for which inter-unit CCFs are considered, as well as the methods for modeling CCF combinations and estimating their probabilities. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is then demonstrated by application to cases with different numbers of identical units as well as to cases where non-identical units are included in MUPSA. Results are also compared with those obtained from existing approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Dong-San & Park, Jin Hee & Lim, Ho-Gon, 2020. "A pragmatic approach to modeling common cause failures in multi-unit PSA for nuclear power plant sites with a large number of units," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:195:y:2020:i:c:s0951832019305368
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.106739
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Le Duy, Tu Duong & Vasseur, Dominique, 2018. "A practical methodology for modeling and estimation of common cause failure parameters in multi-unit nuclear PSA model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 159-174.
    2. Modarres, Mohammad & Zhou, Taotao & Massoud, Mahmoud, 2017. "Advances in multi-unit nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 87-100.
    3. Sakurahara, Tatsuya & Schumock, Grant & Reihani, Seyed & Kee, Ernie & Mohaghegh, Zahra, 2019. "Simulation-Informed Probabilistic Methodology for Common Cause Failure Analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 84-99.
    4. O’Connor, Andrew & Mosleh, Ali, 2016. "A general cause based methodology for analysis of common cause and dependent failures in system risk and reliability assessments," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 341-350.
    5. Zhang, Sai & Tong, Jiejuan & Zhao, Jun, 2016. "An integrated modeling approach for event sequence development in multi-unit probabilistic risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 147-159.
    6. Le Duy, Tu Duong & Vasseur, Dominique & Serdet, Emmanuel, 2016. "Probabilistic Safety Assessment of twin-unit nuclear sites: Methodological elements," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 250-261.
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    Cited by:

    1. Heo, Yunyeong & Lee, Seung Jun, 2021. "Development of a multi-unit seismic conditional core damage probability model with uncertainty analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
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    3. Kim, Yongjin & Jang, Seunghyun & Jae, Moosung, 2022. "Evaluation of inter-unit dependency effect on site core damage frequency: Internal and seismic event," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    4. Jang, Seunghyun & Kim, Yongjin & Jae, Moosung, 2021. "A site risk assessment for internal events: A case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    5. Zhou, Taotao & Modarres, Mohammad & Droguett, Enrique López, 2021. "Multi-unit nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment: A comprehensive survey," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    6. Jafary, Bentolhoda & Mele, Andrew & Fiondella, Lance, 2020. "Component-based system reliability subject to positive and negative correlation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    7. Geon Gyu Choi & Woo Sik Jung & Seong Kyu Park, 2021. "Sensitivity Study on the Correlation Level of Seismic Failures in Seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessments," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-20, May.
    8. Soga, Shota & Higo, Eishiro & Miura, Hiromichi, 2021. "A systematic approach to estimate an inter-unit common-cause failure probability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    9. Yoon, Jae Young & Kim, Dong-San, 2022. "Estimating the adverse effects of inter-unit radioactive release on operator actions at a multi-unit site," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).

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