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Remaining useful lifetime estimation and noisy gamma deterioration process

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  • Le Son, Khanh
  • Fouladirad, Mitra
  • Barros, Anne

Abstract

In many industrial issues where safety, reliability, and availability are considered of first importance, the lifetime prediction is a basic requirement. In this paper, by developing a prognostic probabilistic approach, a remaining lifetime distribution is associated to the system or component under consideration. More particularly, the system׳s deterioration is modelled by a non-homogeneous gamma process. The model considers a noisy observed degradation data and by using the Gibbs sampling technique, the hidden degradation states are approximated and afterwards the system׳s remaining useful lifetime distribution is estimated. Our proposed prognosis method is applied to the Prognostic and Health Management (PHM) 2008 conference challenge data and the interest of our probabilistic model is highlighted. To point out the interest of the prognostic, a maintenance decision rule based on the remaining lifetime estimation results is proposed.

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  • Le Son, Khanh & Fouladirad, Mitra & Barros, Anne, 2016. "Remaining useful lifetime estimation and noisy gamma deterioration process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 76-87.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:149:y:2016:i:c:p:76-87
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.12.016
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    1. Dongliang Lu & Mahesh D Pandey & Wei-Chau Xie, 2013. "An efficient method for the estimation of parameters of stochastic gamma process from noisy degradation measurements," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 227(4), pages 425-433, August.
    2. Le Son, Khanh & Fouladirad, Mitra & Barros, Anne & Levrat, Eric & Iung, Benoît, 2013. "Remaining useful life estimation based on stochastic deterioration models: A comparative study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 165-175.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Jinglong & Jing, Hongjie & Chang, Yuanhong & Liu, Qian, 2019. "Gated recurrent unit based recurrent neural network for remaining useful life prediction of nonlinear deterioration process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 372-382.
    2. Wang, Xiaofei & Wang, Bing Xing & Hong, Yili & Jiang, Pei Hua, 2021. "Degradation data analysis based on gamma process with random effects," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 292(3), pages 1200-1208.
    3. Duan, Chaoqun & Li, Yifan & Pu, Huayan & Luo, Jun, 2022. "Adaptive monitoring scheme of stochastically failing systems under hidden degradation processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    4. Hazra, Indranil & Pandey, Mahesh D. & Manzana, Noldainerick, 2020. "Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method for estimating parameters of the gamma process using noisy data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    5. Xia, Tangbin & Dong, Yifan & Xiao, Lei & Du, Shichang & Pan, Ershun & Xi, Lifeng, 2018. "Recent advances in prognostics and health management for advanced manufacturing paradigms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 255-268.
    6. Li, Jing & Stones, Rebecca J. & Wang, Gang & Liu, Xiaoguang & Li, Zhongwei & Xu, Ming, 2017. "Hard drive failure prediction using Decision Trees," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 55-65.
    7. Moradi, Ramin & Groth, Katrina M., 2020. "Modernizing risk assessment: A systematic integration of PRA and PHM techniques," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    8. Xu, Ancha & Shen, Lijuan, 2018. "Improved on-line estimation for gamma process," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 67-73.
    9. Xiaojie Ke & Zhengguo Xu & Wenhai Wang & Youxian Sun, 2017. "Remaining useful life prediction for non-stationary degradation processes with shocks," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 231(5), pages 469-480, October.
    10. Chen, Zhen & Li, Yaping & Xia, Tangbin & Pan, Ershun, 2019. "Hidden Markov model with auto-correlated observations for remaining useful life prediction and optimal maintenance policy," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 123-136.
    11. Zhang, Nan & Fouladirad, Mitra & Barros, Anne & Zhang, Jun, 2020. "Condition-based maintenance for a K-out-of-N deteriorating system under periodic inspection with failure dependence," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(1), pages 159-167.
    12. Liu, Xingheng & Matias, José & Jäschke, Johannes & Vatn, Jørn, 2022. "Gibbs sampler for noisy Transformed Gamma process: Inference and remaining useful life estimation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    13. Hao, Songhua & Yang, Jun & Berenguer, Christophe, 2019. "Degradation analysis based on an extended inverse Gaussian process model with skew-normal random effects and measurement errors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 261-270.
    14. Tao, Xin & Mårtensson, Jonas & Warnquist, Håkan & Pernestål, Anna, 2022. "Short-term maintenance planning of autonomous trucks for minimizing economic risk," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    15. Chatenet, Q. & Remy, E. & Gagnon, M. & Fouladirad, M. & Tahan, A.S., 2021. "Modeling cavitation erosion using non-homogeneous gamma process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    16. Li, Naipeng & Gebraeel, Nagi & Lei, Yaguo & Fang, Xiaolei & Cai, Xiao & Yan, Tao, 2021. "Remaining useful life prediction based on a multi-sensor data fusion model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    17. Dong, Qinglai & Cui, Lirong, 2019. "A study on stochastic degradation process models under different types of failure Thresholds," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 202-212.

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