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Alternative evacuation strategies for nuclear power accidents

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  • Hammond, Gregory D.
  • Bier, Vicki M.

Abstract

In the U.S., current protective-action strategies to safeguard the public following a nuclear power accident have remained largely unchanged since their implementation in the early 1980s. In the past thirty years, new technologies have been introduced, allowing faster computations, better modeling of predicted radiological consequences, and improved accident mapping using geographic information systems (GIS). Utilizing these new technologies, we evaluate the efficacy of alternative strategies, called adaptive protective action zones (APAZs), that use site-specific and event-specific data to dynamically determine evacuation boundaries with simple heuristics in order to better inform protective action decisions (rather than relying on pre-event regulatory bright lines). Several candidate APAZs were developed and then compared to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s keyhole evacuation strategy (and full evacuation of the emergency planning zone). Two of the APAZs were better on average than existing NRC strategies at reducing either the radiological exposure, the population evacuated, or both. These APAZs are especially effective for larger radioactive plumes and at high population sites; one of them is better at reducing radiation exposure, while the other is better at reducing the size of the population evacuated.

Suggested Citation

  • Hammond, Gregory D. & Bier, Vicki M., 2015. "Alternative evacuation strategies for nuclear power accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 9-14.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:135:y:2015:i:c:p:9-14
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2014.10.016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Lindell & Jung Kang & Carla Prater, 2011. "The logistics of household hurricane evacuation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(3), pages 1093-1109, September.
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    2. Lovreglio, Ruggiero & Spearpoint, Michael & Girault, Mathilde, 2019. "The impact of sampling methods on evacuation model convergence and egress time," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 24-34.
    3. Feng, Xinhang & Jiang, Yanli & Gai, Wenmei, 2024. "Rural community response to accidental toxic gas release: An individual emergency response model during self-organized evacuations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    4. Justin Pence & Ian Miller & Tatsuya Sakurahara & James Whitacre & Seyed Reihani & Ernie Kee & Zahra Mohaghegh, 2019. "GIS‐Based Integration of Social Vulnerability and Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Advance Emergency Preparedness, Planning, and Response for Severe Nuclear Power Plant Accidents," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(6), pages 1262-1280, June.
    5. Teichmann, Dusan & Dorda, Michal & Sousek, Radovan, 2021. "Creation of preventive mass evacuation plan with the use of public transport," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    6. Huifang Miao & Guoming Zhang & Peizhao Yu & Chunsen Shi & Jianxiang Zheng, 2023. "Dynamic Dose-Based Emergency Evacuation Model for Enhancing Nuclear Power Plant Emergency Response Strategies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-21, August.

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