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Accounting for future redesign to balance performance and development costs

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  • Villanueva, D.
  • Haftka, R.T.
  • Sankar, B.V.

Abstract

Most components undergo tests after they are designed and are redesigned if necessary. Tests help designers find unsafe and overly conservative designs, and redesign can restore safety or increase performance. In general, the expected changes to the performance and reliability of the design after the test and redesign are not considered. In this paper, we explore how modeling a future test and redesign provides a company an opportunity to balance development costs versus performance by simultaneously designing the design and the post-test redesign rules during the initial design stage. Due to regulations and tradition, safety margin and safety factor based design is a common practice in industry as opposed to probabilistic design. In this paper, we show that it is possible to continue to use safety margin based design, and employ probability solely to select safety margins and redesign criteria. In this study, we find the optimum safety margins and redesign criterion for an integrated thermal protection system. These are optimized in order to find a minimum mass design with minimal redesign costs. We observed that the optimum safety margin and redesign criterion call for an initially conservative design and use the redesign process to trim excess weight rather than restore safety. This would fit well with regulatory constraints, since regulations usually impose minimum safety margins.

Suggested Citation

  • Villanueva, D. & Haftka, R.T. & Sankar, B.V., 2014. "Accounting for future redesign to balance performance and development costs," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 56-67.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:124:y:2014:i:c:p:56-67
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2013.11.013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rockafellar, R.T. & Royset, J.O., 2010. "On buffered failure probability in design and optimization of structures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(5), pages 499-510.
    2. Möller, Niklas & Hansson, Sven Ove, 2008. "Principles of engineering safety: Risk and uncertainty reduction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(6), pages 798-805.
    3. Durga Rao, K. & Kushwaha, H.S. & Verma, A.K. & Srividya, A., 2007. "Quantification of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in level-1 probabilistic safety assessment studies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(7), pages 947-956.
    4. Benjamin P. Smarslok & Raphael T. Haftka & Laurent Carraro & David Ginsbourger, 2010. "Improving accuracy of failure probability estimates with separable Monte Carlo," International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(4), pages 393-414.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmed, Hussam & Chateauneuf, Alaa, 2014. "Optimal number of tests to achieve and validate product reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 242-250.

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