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Risk-informed optimal routing of ships considering different damage scenarios and operational conditions

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  • Decò, Alberto
  • Frangopol, Dan M.

Abstract

The aim of this paper is the development of a risk-informed decision tool for the optimal mission-oriented routing of ships. The strength of the hull is investigated by modeling the midship section with finite elements and by analyzing different damage levels depending on the propagation of plastification throughout the section. Vertical and horizontal flexural interaction is investigated. Uncertainties associated with geometry and material properties are accounted for by means of the implementation of the response surface method. Load effects are evaluated using strip theory. Reliability analysis is performed for several ship operational conditions and considering four different limit states. Then, risk is assessed by including the direct losses associated with five investigated damage states. The effects of corrosion on aged ships are included in the proposed approach. Polar representation of load effects, reliability, and direct risk are presented for a large spectrum of operational conditions. Finally, the optimal routing of ships is obtained by minimizing both the estimated time of arrival and the expected direct risk, which are clearly conflicting objectives. The optimization process provides feasible solutions belonging to the Pareto front. The proposed approach is applied to a Joint High Speed Sealift.

Suggested Citation

  • Decò, Alberto & Frangopol, Dan M., 2013. "Risk-informed optimal routing of ships considering different damage scenarios and operational conditions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 126-140.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:119:y:2013:i:c:p:126-140
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2013.05.017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. K Fagerholt & G Laporte & I Norstad, 2010. "Reducing fuel emissions by optimizing speed on shipping routes," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(3), pages 523-529, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zou, Guang & Kolios, Athanasios, 2022. "Quantifying the value of negative inspection outcomes in fatigue maintenance planning: Cost reduction, risk mitigation and reliability growth," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    2. Zvyagina, Tatiana & Zvyagin, Petr, 2022. "A model of multi-objective route optimization for a vessel in drifting ice," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PB).
    3. Dong, You & Frangopol, Dan M. & Sabatino, Samantha, 2016. "A decision support system for mission-based ship routing considering multiple performance criteria," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 190-201.
    4. Tao, Longlong & Wu, Jie & Ge, Daochuan & Chen, Liwei & Sun, Ming, 2022. "Risk-informed based comprehensive path-planning method for radioactive materials road transportation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).

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