IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reecon/v78y2024i4s1090944324000541.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A stochastic-demographic model to explain success and dominance in international sports

Author

Listed:
  • Klöcker, Julian Alexander
  • Daumann, Frank

Abstract

We model a stochastic, demographic-based framework to examine how an empirically proven, so-called first mover advantage affects the long-term sporting success of states by considering, among other things, demographic developments and the accumulation of sport-related human capital. In order to clarify and formalize this advantage in a sports economics framework, we draw on the concept of the stochastic dominance. Since our model is dynamic, it allows us to show how the probability of success of a nation evolves and under which conditions the stochastic dominance reduces.

Suggested Citation

  • Klöcker, Julian Alexander & Daumann, Frank, 2024. "A stochastic-demographic model to explain success and dominance in international sports," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(4).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:78:y:2024:i:4:s1090944324000541
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.100990
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1090944324000541
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rie.2024.100990?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. George J Borjas & Ilpo Kauppinen & Panu Poutvaara, 2019. "Self-selection of Emigrants: Theory and Evidence on Stochastic Dominance in Observable and Unobservable Characteristics," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(617), pages 143-171.
    2. Heijdra, Ben J. & Romp, Ward E., 2009. "Human capital formation and macroeconomic performance in an ageing small open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 725-744, March.
    3. Doraszelski, Ulrich, 2003. "An R&D Race with Knowledge Accumulation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 34(1), pages 20-42, Spring.
    4. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Valentina Colombo & Gabriela Nodari, 2015. "Estimating Fiscal Multipliers: News From A Non‐linear World," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(584), pages 746-776, May.
    5. César García‐Gómez & Ana Pérez & Mercedes Prieto‐Alaiz, 2019. "A Review Of Stochastic Dominance Methods For Poverty Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5), pages 1437-1462, December.
    6. Alex Krumer & Reut Megidish & Aner Sela, 2017. "First-mover advantage in round-robin tournaments," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 48(3), pages 633-658, March.
    7. Horrace, William C., 2005. "Some results on the multivariate truncated normal distribution," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 209-221, May.
    8. Anne C Wunderlich & Florian Follert & Frank Daumann, 2021. "Specialization in sports: A theoretical approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-13, May.
    9. Masaki Fujimoto, 2023. "A Dynamic Analysis of Equal Revenue Sharing and Endogenous Salary Caps in the N-Team Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(5), pages 624-638, June.
    10. Marc Dubois, 2022. "Dominance criteria on grids for measuring competitive balance in sports leagues," Post-Print hal-04692979, HAL.
    11. Kim, Hyung-Min & Kim, Seongcheol, 2022. "The show must go on: Why Korea lost its first-mover advantage in Esports and how it can become a major player again," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    12. Wladimir Andreff & Nicolas Scelles, 2021. "Economic determinants of sport performance," Chapters, in: Elizabeth C.K. Pike (ed.), Research Handbook on Sports and Society, chapter 6, pages 69-82, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Martin Grossmann & Helmut M. Dietl, 2009. "Investment Behaviour in a Two-Period Contest Model," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 165(3), pages 401-417, September.
    14. Daniel K. N. Johnson & Ayfer Ali, 2004. "A Tale of Two Seasons: Participation and Medal Counts at the Summer and Winter Olympic Games," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 85(4), pages 974-993, December.
    15. Andrew B. Bernard & Meghan R. Busse, 2004. "Who Wins the Olympic Games: Economic Resources and Medal Totals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 413-417, February.
    16. Wen, Bohui & Bi, ShaSha & Yuan, Ming & Hao, Jing, 2023. "Financial constraint, cross-sectoral spillover and systemic risk in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 1-11.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frank Daumann & Florian Follert & Daniel Hamacher & Lasse Plöhn, 2023. "The early bird catches the worm: The impact of first‐mover advantage on long‐term elite team sport success," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 1465-1475, April.
    2. Franklin G. Mixon Jr. & Richard J. Cebula, 2022. "Property Rights Freedom and Innovation: Eponymous Skills in Women's Gymnastics," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 23(4), pages 407-430, May.
    3. Pedro Garcia‐del‐Barrio & Carlos Gomez‐Gonzalez & José Manuel Sánchez‐Santos, 2020. "Popularity and Visibility Appraisals for Computing Olympic Medal Rankings," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2137-2157, September.
    4. Michael A. Leeds & Eva Marikova Leeds, 2009. "International Soccer Success and National Institutions," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 10(4), pages 369-390, August.
    5. Loek Groot, 2012. "The Contest for Olympic Success as a Public Good," Journal of Income Distribution, Ad libros publications inc., vol. 21(1), pages 102-117, March.
    6. Wladimir Andreff, 2012. "Is Hosting the Games Enough to Win? A predictive economic model of medal wins at 2014 Winter Olympics," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00794057, HAL.
    7. John Manuel Luiz & Riyas Fadal, 2011. "An economic analysis of sports performance in Africa," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(10), pages 869-883, August.
    8. Vagenas, George & Vlachokyriakou, Eleni, 2012. "Olympic medals and demo-economic factors: Novel predictors, the ex-host effect, the exact role of team size, and the “population-GDP” model revisited," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 211-217.
    9. Wladimir Andreff & Madeleine Andreff, 2015. "Economic prediction of sport performances from the Beijing Olympics to the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa: the notion of surprising sporting outcomes," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01244495, HAL.
    10. Krumer, Alex & Lechner, Michael, 2016. "First In First Win: Evidence on Unfairness of Round-Robin Tournaments in Mega-Events," Economics Working Paper Series 1611, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    11. Schlembach, Christoph & Schmidt, Sascha L. & Schreyer, Dominik & Wunderlich, Linus, 2022. "Forecasting the Olympic medal distribution – A socioeconomic machine learning model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    12. T. Potts, 2014. "Governance, corruption and Olympic success," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(31), pages 3882-3891, November.
    13. Leeds Eva Marikova & Leeds Michael A., 2012. "Gold, Silver, and Bronze: Determining National Success in Men’s and Women’s Summer Olympic Events," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(3), pages 279-292, June.
    14. L.F.M. Groot, 2007. "The welfare optimal distribution of Olympic Success considered as a public good," Working Papers 07-13, Utrecht School of Economics.
    15. Madeleine Andreff & Wladimir Andreff & Sandrine Poupaux, 2008. "Les Determinants Economiques de la Performance Olympique," Working Papers 0819, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.
    16. Hon‐Kwong Lui & Wing Suen, 2008. "Men, Money, And Medals: An Econometric Analysis Of The Olympic Games," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 1-16, February.
    17. David Forrest & Adams Ceballos & Ramón Flores & Ian G. McHale & Ismael Sanz & J.D. Tena, 2012. "Explaining and Forecasting National Team Medals Totals at the Summer Olympic Games," Chapters, in: Wolfgang Maennig & Andrew Zimbalist (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Mega Sporting Events, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Caroline Buts & Cind Du Bois & Bruno Heyndels & Marc Jegers, 2013. "Socioeconomic Determinants of Success at the Summer Paralympics," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 14(2), pages 133-147, April.
    19. Yun Hyeong Choi & Qingyuan Wei & Luyao Zhang & Seong-Jin Choi, 2022. "The Impact of Cultural Distance on Performance at the Summer Olympic Games," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440221, March.
    20. Marcus Noland, 2016. "Russian Doping in Sports," Working Paper Series WP16-4, Peterson Institute for International Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:78:y:2024:i:4:s1090944324000541. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622941 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.