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The killing game: A theory of non-democratic succession

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  • Egorov, Georgy
  • Sonin, Konstantin

Abstract

The winner of a battle for a throne can either execute or spare the loser; if the loser is spared, he contends the throne in the next period. Executing the losing contender gives the winner a chance to rule uncontested for a while, but then his life is at risk if he loses to some future contender who might be, in equilibrium, too frightened to spare him. The trade-off is analyzed within a dynamic complete information game, with, potentially, an infinite number of long-term players. In an equilibrium, decisions to execute predecessors depend on the predecessors’ history of executions. With a dynastic rule in place, incentives to kill the predecessor are much higher than in non-hereditary dictatorships. The historical illustration for our analysis contains a discussion of post-World War II politics of execution of deposed leaders and detailed discussion of non-hereditary military dictatorships in Venezuela in 1830–1964, which witnessed dozens of comebacks and no single political execution.

Suggested Citation

  • Egorov, Georgy & Sonin, Konstantin, 2015. "The killing game: A theory of non-democratic succession," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 398-411.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:69:y:2015:i:3:p:398-411
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2015.05.005
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    2. Noah Buckley & Ora John Reuter & Michael Rochlitz & Anton Aisin, 2020. "Staying Out of Trouble: Criminal Cases Against Russian Mayors," Bremen Papers on Economics & Innovation 2013, University of Bremen, Faculty of Business Studies and Economics.
    3. Gregorini, Filippo, 2015. "Political geography and income inequalities," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 439-452.
    4. Kana Inata, 2021. "Power-sharing negotiation and commitment in monarchies," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 187(3), pages 501-518, June.
    5. Kirill Chmel & Alexander Demin & Kirill Kazantcev, 2017. "Dictators’ Behavior Under Conditions of Economic Sanctions Cumulative Effect," HSE Working papers WP BRP 50/PS/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    6. Konstantin Sonin & Georgy Egorov, 2011. "Incumbency Advantage in Nondemocratic Elections," 2011 Meeting Papers 417, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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