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An investigation on bootstrapping forecasting methods for intermittent demands

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  • Hasni, M.
  • Babai, M.Z.
  • Aguir, M.S.
  • Jemai, Z.

Abstract

Many bootstrapping approaches have been proposed in the academic literature for non-parametric demand forecasting. Two approaches have been developed to deal particularly with intermittent demands. A first approach that samples demand data by using a Markov chain to switch between no demand and demand periods and a second approach that separately samples demand intervals and demand sizes. The relevant studies have claimed improvements over parametric approaches when estimating the lead-time demand distribution. However, it should be noted that the outperformance of the two bootstrapping approaches has been shown under a limited set of control parameters and assumptions. The purpose of this paper is to broaden the empirical and numerical settings when analyzing the performance of the two bootstrapping approaches and the parametric one. Hence, more exhaustive assumptions (i.e. generated demand distributions) and a wider range of control parameters (i.e. length of demand histories, length of lead-times, demand distribution parameters and cost parameters) are considered in the numerical analysis. More empirical data with a wider range of demand patterns are also used for the purpose of the empirical investigation. The results show that for highly intermittent demands and small values of lead-times, contrary to what has been claimed in the literature, the parametric approach outperforms the bootstrapping approach that separately samples demand intervals and sizes.

Suggested Citation

  • Hasni, M. & Babai, M.Z. & Aguir, M.S. & Jemai, Z., 2019. "An investigation on bootstrapping forecasting methods for intermittent demands," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 20-29.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:proeco:v:209:y:2019:i:c:p:20-29
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2018.03.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Kamal Sanguri & Kampan Mukherjee, 2021. "Forecasting of intermittent demands under the risk of inventory obsolescence," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1054-1069, September.
    4. Aysun Kapucugil Ikiz & Gizem Halil Utma, 2023. "Combined Forecasts of Intermittent Demand for Stock-keeping Units (SKUs)," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 9(1), pages 1-31, June.
    5. Babai, M.Z. & Chen, H. & Syntetos, A.A. & Lengu, D., 2021. "A compound-Poisson Bayesian approach for spare parts inventory forecasting," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    6. Pinçe, Çerağ & Turrini, Laura & Meissner, Joern, 2021. "Intermittent demand forecasting for spare parts: A Critical review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    7. Tian, Xin & Wang, Haoqing & E, Erjiang, 2021. "Forecasting intermittent demand for inventory management by retailers: A new approach," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    8. Rostami-Tabar, Bahman & Disney, Stephen M., 2023. "On the order-up-to policy with intermittent integer demand and logically consistent forecasts," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    9. Hasni, M. & Aguir, M.S. & Babai, M.Z. & Jemai, Z., 2019. "On the performance of adjusted bootstrapping methods for intermittent demand forecasting," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 145-153.

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