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The impact of systematic changes in weather on the supply and demand of beverages

Author

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  • Keleş, Büşra
  • Gómez-Acevedo, Patricia
  • Shaikh, Nazrul I.

Abstract

Weather, especially temperature, plays an important role in determining the supply and demand for a vast variety of goods and services. Though the economic impact of extreme weather is often measured and reported, the impact of systematic changes in weather, such as long-term temperature trends or short-term heat and cold waves are seldom quantified. In this research, we posit that such systematic changes in temperature impact the profitability of firms, and we develop a two-step econometric model to quantify the impact. The proposed two-step model estimates the impact that temperature has on the profitability of firms and partitions this impact into a long-term and a short-term component. We take up the case of six liquid refreshment beverages (LRBs) for illustrating the impact that systematic change in temperature has on demand. The results indicate that (a) the demand for LRBs is increasing by about 0.21% (63 million gallons) from year to year on account of the rising temperature trend, and (b) there is an asymmetry in the effect of a heat wave versus a cold wave on beverage demand (i.e., the weekly demand for beverages increases by about 2.1% per degree on account of a heat wave while the weekly demand decreases by only 0.4% per degree on account of a cold wave). We also illustrate how these estimates of the impact of the long-term temperature trends could be linked to strategic decisions, such as facility location, and the estimates of the impact of the short-term temperature aberrations could be linked to operational decisions such as the inventory order quantity in a week when there is a temperature aberration.

Suggested Citation

  • Keleş, Büşra & Gómez-Acevedo, Patricia & Shaikh, Nazrul I., 2018. "The impact of systematic changes in weather on the supply and demand of beverages," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 186-197.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:proeco:v:195:y:2018:i:c:p:186-197
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2017.08.002
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fraccascia, Luca, 2019. "The impact of technical and economic disruptions in industrial symbiosis relationships: An enterprise input-output approach," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 161-174.
    2. Shivam Gupta & Sachin Modgil & Ajay Kumar & Uthayasankar Sivarajah & Zahir Irani, 2022. "Artificial intelligence and cloud-based Collaborative Platforms for Managing Disaster, extreme weather and emergency operations," Post-Print hal-04325638, HAL.
    3. Gupta, Shivam & Modgil, Sachin & Kumar, Ajay & Sivarajah, Uthayasankar & Irani, Zahir, 2022. "Artificial intelligence and cloud-based Collaborative Platforms for Managing Disaster, extreme weather and emergency operations," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    4. Shu, Wenjun & Fan, Di, 2024. "How do firms perceive and react to extreme weather risk in their supply bases?," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    5. Solji Nam & Jungwoo Shin & Jaena Ryu & Hanee Ryu, 2021. "Climate impacts on geographical changes in the energy industry," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 478-488, January.
    6. Saura, Jose Ramon & Ribeiro-Navarrete, Samuel & Palacios-Marqués, Daniel & Mardani, Abbas, 2023. "Impact of extreme weather in production economics: Extracting evidence from user-generated content," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    7. Dai, Hongyan & Xiao, Qin & Chen, Songlin & Zhou, Weihua, 2023. "Data-driven demand forecast for O2O operations: An adaptive hierarchical incremental approach," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    8. Tian, Xin & Cao, Shasha & Song, Yan, 2021. "The impact of weather on consumer behavior and retail performance: Evidence from a convenience store chain in China," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    9. Xu, Qingyun & He, Yi & Shao, Zhen, 2023. "Retailer's ordering decisions with consumer panic buying under unexpected events," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    10. Liang, Chen & Zhu, Minghao & Lee, Peter K.C. & Cheng, T.C.E. & Yeung, Andy C.L., 2024. "Combating extreme weather through operations management: Evidence from a natural experiment in China," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    11. Qin, Jindong & Li, Minxuan & Wang, Xiaojun & Pedrycz, Witold, 2024. "Collaborative emergency decision-making: A framework for deep learning with social media data," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    12. Zhang, Ting & Su, Yina & Wang, Ningning, 2023. "Product quality improvement under retailer-direct financing: Effects of attitudes toward extreme weather," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    13. Gómez, Patricia & Shaikh, Nazrul I. & Erkoc, Murat, 2024. "Continuous improvement in the efficient use of energy in office buildings through peers effects," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    14. Cao, Kaiying & Guo, Qiang & Xu, Yuqiu, 2023. "Information sharing and carbon reduction strategies with extreme weather in the platform economy," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).

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