IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v608y2022ip1s0378437122008044.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Transmission characteristic and dynamic analysis of COVID-19 on contact network with Tianjin city in China

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Mingtao
  • Cui, Jin
  • Zhang, Juan
  • Pei, Xin
  • Sun, Guiquan

Abstract

The outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) has had a profound impact on people’s lives around the world, and the spread of COVID-19 between individuals were mainly caused by contact transmission of the social networks. In order to analyze the network transmission of COVID-19, we constructed a case contact network using available contact data of 136 early diagnosed cases in Tianjin. Based on the constructed case contact network, the structural characteristics of the network were first analyzed, and then the centrality of the nodes was analyzed to find the key nodes. In addition, since the constructed network may contain missing edges and false edges, link prediction algorithms were used to reconstruct the network. Finally, to understand the spread of COVID-19 in the network, an individual-based susceptible–latent–exposed–infected–recover (SLEIR) model is established and simulated in the network. The results showed that the disease peak scale caused by the node with the highest centrality is larger, and reducing the contact infection rate of the infected person during the incubation period has a greater impact on the peak disease scale.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Mingtao & Cui, Jin & Zhang, Juan & Pei, Xin & Sun, Guiquan, 2022. "Transmission characteristic and dynamic analysis of COVID-19 on contact network with Tianjin city in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 608(P1).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:608:y:2022:i:p1:s0378437122008044
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2022.128246
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437122008044
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2022.128246?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gert Sabidussi, 1966. "The centrality index of a graph," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 31(4), pages 581-603, December.
    2. Lü, Linyuan & Zhou, Tao, 2011. "Link prediction in complex networks: A survey," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(6), pages 1150-1170.
    3. Leo Katz, 1953. "A new status index derived from sociometric analysis," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 18(1), pages 39-43, March.
    4. Tao Zhou & Linyuan Lü & Yi-Cheng Zhang, 2009. "Predicting missing links via local information," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 71(4), pages 623-630, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nie, Shiqian & Lei, Xiaochun, 2023. "A time-dependent model of the transmission of COVID-19 variants dynamics using Hausdorff fractal derivative," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 629(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Zuxi & Wu, Yao & Li, Qingguang & Jin, Fengdong & Xiong, Wei, 2016. "Link prediction based on hyperbolic mapping with community structure for complex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 450(C), pages 609-623.
    2. Lee, Yan-Li & Zhou, Tao, 2021. "Collaborative filtering approach to link prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 578(C).
    3. Moradabadi, Behnaz & Meybodi, Mohammad Reza, 2016. "Link prediction based on temporal similarity metrics using continuous action set learning automata," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 460(C), pages 361-373.
    4. Kai Yang & Yuan Liu & Zijuan Zhao & Xingxing Zhou & Peijin Ding, 2023. "Graph attention network via node similarity for link prediction," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 96(3), pages 1-10, March.
    5. Mungo, Luca & Lafond, François & Astudillo-Estévez, Pablo & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2023. "Reconstructing production networks using machine learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    6. Yu, Jiating & Wu, Ling-Yun, 2022. "Multiple Order Local Information model for link prediction in complex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 600(C).
    7. Charikhi, Mourad, 2024. "Association of the PageRank algorithm with similarity-based methods for link prediction in complex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 637(C).
    8. Xiaoji Wan & Fen Chen & Hailin Li & Weibin Lin, 2022. "Potentially Related Commodity Discovery Based on Link Prediction," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(19), pages 1-27, October.
    9. Víctor Martínez & Fernando Berzal & Juan-Carlos Cubero, 2019. "NOESIS: A Framework for Complex Network Data Analysis," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-14, October.
    10. Najari, Shaghayegh & Salehi, Mostafa & Ranjbar, Vahid & Jalili, Mahdi, 2019. "Link prediction in multiplex networks based on interlayer similarity," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 536(C).
    11. Liu, Shuxin & Ji, Xinsheng & Liu, Caixia & Bai, Yi, 2017. "Extended resource allocation index for link prediction of complex network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 174-183.
    12. Sherkat, Ehsan & Rahgozar, Maseud & Asadpour, Masoud, 2015. "Structural link prediction based on ant colony approach in social networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 80-94.
    13. Aziz, Furqan & Gul, Haji & Muhammad, Ishtiaq & Uddin, Irfan, 2020. "Link prediction using node information on local paths," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 557(C).
    14. Seo, Wonchul & Afifuddin, Mokh, 2024. "Developing a supervised learning model for anticipating potential technology convergence between technology topics," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    15. Kumar, Ajay & Singh, Shashank Sheshar & Singh, Kuldeep & Biswas, Bhaskar, 2020. "Link prediction techniques, applications, and performance: A survey," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 553(C).
    16. Chunning Wang & Fengqin Tang & Xuejing Zhao, 2023. "LPGRI: A Global Relevance-Based Link Prediction Approach for Multiplex Networks," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-15, July.
    17. Wahid-Ul-Ashraf, Akanda & Budka, Marcin & Musial, Katarzyna, 2019. "How to predict social relationships — Physics-inspired approach to link prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 1110-1129.
    18. Chen, Guangfu & Xu, Chen & Wang, Jingyi & Feng, Jianwen & Feng, Jiqiang, 2020. "Robust non-negative matrix factorization for link prediction in complex networks using manifold regularization and sparse learning," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 539(C).
    19. Wu, Jiehua & Shen, Jing & Zhou, Bei & Zhang, Xiayan & Huang, Bohuai, 2019. "General link prediction with influential node identification," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 996-1007.
    20. Xu-Wen Wang & Lorenzo Madeddu & Kerstin Spirohn & Leonardo Martini & Adriano Fazzone & Luca Becchetti & Thomas P. Wytock & István A. Kovács & Olivér M. Balogh & Bettina Benczik & Mátyás Pétervári & Be, 2023. "Assessment of community efforts to advance network-based prediction of protein–protein interactions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:608:y:2022:i:p1:s0378437122008044. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.