IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v600y2022ics0378437122004101.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

After 2018 Bolsonaro victory, is a 2022 remake feasible?

Author

Listed:
  • Crokidakis, Nuno
  • Galam, Serge

Abstract

We propose a contagion model to describe the evolution of the political voting trends in Brazil after the dictatorship from 1985 to nowadays. We consider a fully-connected population divided in two voting groups, left and right. Each group includes three kinds of agents, sensitives, inflexibles and radicals. While sensitives may shift their left or right voting, inflexibles and radicals do not. Excluding political interactions with radicals, the model has one interaction parameter, and we found the values which reproduce all the voting outcomes of past presidential elections from 1989 till 2018. As an alternative approach to explain 2018 election, we found that adding an empty third voting group overlapping left and right, the populist voting group, can also yield Bolsonaro 2018 victory. The initial filling of the populist group is triggered by the breaking of the interaction barrier between sensitives and radicals, which had prevailed for decades. Within each voting group, some of the interacting pairs sensitive/radical recast the sensitive into a populist. This status change from sensitive to populist allows the populist to interact with sensitives of both left and right, thus creating an additional source of filling of the populist group. The process is shown to yield the 2018 55% for Bolsonaro. From the 2018 distribution of votes, we evaluate the parameter changes which recover the recent 2021 poll yielding a victory of Lula against Bolsonaro at a score of 64/36. Thus, we compare the results for the two scenarios, with and without populists, for 2018 election and 2021 poll. Regarding the two possible scenarios for the 2018 Bolsonaro victory, we discuss about a hypothetic Lula/Bolsonaro 2022 second round voting and the requirements to yield either Lula or Bolsonaro victory in 2022. Both scenarios are feasible.

Suggested Citation

  • Crokidakis, Nuno & Galam, Serge, 2022. "After 2018 Bolsonaro victory, is a 2022 remake feasible?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 600(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:600:y:2022:i:c:s0378437122004101
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2022.127598
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437122004101
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2022.127598?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Galam, Serge, 2021. "Will Trump win again in the 2020 election? An answer from a sociophysics model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 570(C).
    2. F. W. S. Lima & Tarik Hadzibeganovic & Dietrich Stauffer, 2014. "Evolution of tag-based cooperation on Erdős–Rényi random graphs," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 25(06), pages 1-10.
    3. Nuno Crokidakis & Jorge S. Sá Martins, 2018. "Can honesty survive in a corrupt parliament?," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 29(10), pages 1-10, October.
    4. Lucas Böttcher & Hans J Herrmann & Hans Gersbach, 2018. "Clout, activists and budget: The road to presidency," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-11, March.
    5. Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna & Sznajd, Józef, 2005. "Who is left, who is right?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 351(2), pages 593-604.
    6. Luis E. Araripe & Raimundo N. Costa Filho & Hans J. Herrmann & José S. Andrade, 2006. "Plurality Voting: The Statistical Laws Of Democracy In Brazil," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(12), pages 1809-1813.
    7. Rafael M. Brum & Nuno Crokidakis, 2017. "Dynamics of tax evasion through an epidemic-like model," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 28(02), pages 1-14, February.
    8. Serge Galam & Marco Alberto Javarone, 2016. "Modeling Radicalization Phenomena in Heterogeneous Populations," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(5), pages 1-15, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oestereich, André L. & Crokidakis, Nuno & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2022. "Impact of memory and bias in kinetic exchange opinion models on random networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 607(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Crokidakis, Nuno & Sigaud, Lucas, 2021. "Modeling the evolution of drinking behavior: A Statistical Physics perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 570(C).
    2. Hoferer, Moritz & Böttcher, Lucas & Herrmann, Hans J. & Gersbach, Hans, 2020. "The impact of technologies in political campaigns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 538(C).
    3. Gwizdalla, Tomasz M., 2008. "Gallagher index for sociophysical models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(12), pages 2937-2951.
    4. Han, Wenchen & Gao, Shun & Huang, Changwei & Yang, Junzhong, 2022. "Non-consensus states in circular opinion model with repulsive interaction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 585(C).
    5. Zhu, Hou & Hu, Bin, 2018. "Impact of information on public opinion reversal—An agent based model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 512(C), pages 578-587.
    6. Oliveira, Igor V.G. & Wang, Chao & Dong, Gaogao & Du, Ruijin & Fiore, Carlos E. & Vilela, André L.M. & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2024. "Entropy production on cooperative opinion dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    7. Domino, Krzysztof & Miszczak, Jarosław Adam, 2022. "Will you infect me with your opinion?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 608(P1).
    8. Santoprete, Manuele, 2019. "Countering violent extremism: A mathematical model," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 358(C), pages 314-329.
    9. Santoprete, Manuele & Xu, Fei, 2018. "Global stability in a mathematical model of de-radicalization," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 151-161.
    10. Markus Brede, 2019. "How Does Active Participation Affect Consensus: Adaptive Network Model of Opinion Dynamics and Influence Maximizing Rewiring," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-16, June.
    11. Krzysztof Malarz & Piotr Gronek & Krzysztof Kulakowski, 2011. "Zaller-Deffuant Model of Mass Opinion," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 14(1), pages 1-2.
    12. Sooknanan, Joanna & Seemungal, Terence A.R., 2023. "Criminals and their models - a review of epidemiological models describing criminal behaviour," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 458(C).
    13. Boris Podobnik & Marko Jusup & Dejan Kovac & H. E. Stanley, 2017. "Predicting the Rise of EU Right-Wing Populism in Response to Unbalanced Immigration," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-12, August.
    14. Shang, Lihui & Zhao, Mingming & Ai, Jun & Su, Zhan, 2021. "Opinion evolution in the Sznajd model on interdependent chains," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 565(C).
    15. H Hernández-Saldaña, 2013. "Results on Three Predictions for July 2012 Federal Elections in Mexico Based on Past Regularities," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(12), pages 1-8, December.
    16. Toth, Gabor & Galam, Serge, 2022. "Deviations from the majority: A local flip model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    17. Agnieszka Kowalska-Styczeń & Krzysztof Malarz, 2020. "Noise induced unanimity and disorder in opinion formation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-22, July.
    18. Cardoso, M. & Silva, L.M.C. & Neli, R.R. & Souza, W.E., 2022. "Electorate involvement disorder: Universal relationship between the amplitude and electorate size in second round of Brazilian Presidential Election," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 591(C).
    19. John Bryden & Eric Silverman, 2019. "Underlying socio-political processes behind the 2016 US election," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-11, April.
    20. Marco Alberto Javarone & Daniele Marinazzo, 2018. "Dilution of Ferromagnets via a Random Graph-Based Strategy," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-11, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:600:y:2022:i:c:s0378437122004101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.