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The impact of technologies in political campaigns

Author

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  • Hoferer, Moritz
  • Böttcher, Lucas
  • Herrmann, Hans J.
  • Gersbach, Hans

Abstract

Recent political campaigns have demonstrated how technologies are used to boost election outcomes by microtargeting voters. We propose and analyze a framework which analyzes how political activists can use technologies to target voters. Voters are represented as nodes of a network. Political activists reach out locally to voters and try to convince them. Depending on their technological advantage and budget, political activists target certain regions in the network where their activities are able to generate the largest vote-share gains. Analytically and numerically, we quantify vote-share gains and savings in terms of budget and number of activists from employing superior targeting technologies compared to traditional campaigns. Moreover, we demonstrate that the technological precision must surpass a certain threshold in order to lead to a vote-share gain or budget advantage. Finally, by calibrating the technology parameters to the recent U.S. presidential election, we show that a pure targeting technology advantage is consistent with Trump winning against Clinton.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoferer, Moritz & Böttcher, Lucas & Herrmann, Hans J. & Gersbach, Hans, 2020. "The impact of technologies in political campaigns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 538(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:538:y:2020:i:c:s0378437119315857
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.122795
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hans Gersbach, 2020. "Democratizing Tech Giants! A roadmap," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 351-361, December.

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