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Plurality Voting: The Statistical Laws Of Democracy In Brazil

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  • LUIS E. ARARIPE

    (Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal do Ceará, 60451-970 Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil)

  • RAIMUNDO N. COSTA FILHO

    (Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal do Ceará, 60451-970 Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil)

  • HANS J. HERRMANN

    (Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal do Ceará, 60451-970 Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil)

  • JOSÉ S. ANDRADE

    (Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal do Ceará, 60451-970 Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil)

Abstract

We explore the statistical laws behind the plurality voting system by investigating the election results for the mayor in Brazil in 2004. Our analysis indicate that the vote partition among mayor candidates of the same city tends to be "polarized" between two candidates, a phenomenon that can be closely described by means of a simple fragmentation model. Complex concepts like "government continuity" and "useful vote" can be identified and even statistically quantified through our approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis E. Araripe & Raimundo N. Costa Filho & Hans J. Herrmann & José S. Andrade, 2006. "Plurality Voting: The Statistical Laws Of Democracy In Brazil," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(12), pages 1809-1813.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijmpcx:v:17:y:2006:i:12:n:s0129183106010200
    DOI: 10.1142/S0129183106010200
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    Cited by:

    1. H Hernández-Saldaña, 2013. "Results on Three Predictions for July 2012 Federal Elections in Mexico Based on Past Regularities," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(12), pages 1-8, December.
    2. Crokidakis, Nuno & Galam, Serge, 2022. "After 2018 Bolsonaro victory, is a 2022 remake feasible?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 600(C).
    3. Cardoso, M. & Souza, J.T.G. & Neli, R.R. & Souza, W.E., 2023. "Scaling laws from Brazilian state election results point out that, the candidate’s chance to win increases by investing more campaign efforts in smaller electorates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 619(C).
    4. Cardoso, M. & Silva, L.M.C. & Neli, R.R. & Souza, W.E., 2022. "Electorate involvement disorder: Universal relationship between the amplitude and electorate size in second round of Brazilian Presidential Election," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 591(C).
    5. Cardoso, M. & Afonso, L.H.D. & Neli, R.R. & Souza, W.E., 2024. "Simplified model relating blank and null votes to voter turnout from Brazilian state elections results," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 645(C).
    6. Cardoso, M. & Mendes, R.S. & Souza, J.T.G. & Ribeiro, H.V., 2020. "Gender difference in candidature processes for Brazilian elections," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 537(C).

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