IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v543y2020ics0378437119317996.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evidence of inefficiency of the Brazilian stock market: The IBOVESPA future contracts

Author

Listed:
  • Rocha Filho, Tareísio M.
  • Rocha, Paulo M.M.

Abstract

We present some indications of inefficiency of the Brazilian stock market based on the existence of strong long-time cross-correlations with foreign markets and indices. Our results show a strong dependence on foreign markets indices as the S&P 500 and CAC 40, but not to the Shanghai SSE 180, indicating an intricate interdependence. We also show that the distribution of log-returns of the Brazilian BOVESPA index has a discrete fat tail in the time scale of a day, which is also a deviation of what is expected of an efficient equilibrated market. As a final argument of the inefficiency of the Brazilian stock market, we use a neural network approach to forecast the direction of movement of the value of the IBOVESPA future contracts, with an accuracy allowing financial returns over passive strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Rocha Filho, Tareísio M. & Rocha, Paulo M.M., 2020. "Evidence of inefficiency of the Brazilian stock market: The IBOVESPA future contracts," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 543(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:543:y:2020:i:c:s0378437119317996
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.123200
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437119317996
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2019.123200?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    2. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    3. repec:pri:cepsud:91malkiel is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Lo, Andrew W, 1991. "Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1279-1313, September.
    6. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    7. Burton G. Malkiel, 2005. "Reflections on the Efficient Market Hypothesis: 30 Years Later," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 1-9, February.
    8. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 59-82, Winter.
    9. de Lima, Neílson F. & Fernandes, Leonardo H.S. & Jale, Jader S. & de Mattos Neto, Paulo S.G. & Stošić, Tatijana & Stošić, Borko & Ferreira, Tiago A.E., 2018. "Long-term correlations and cross-correlations in IBovespa and constituent companies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 492(C), pages 1431-1438.
    10. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nametala, Ciniro Aparecido Leite & Faria, Wandry Rodrigues & Lage, Guilherme Guimarães & Pereira, Benvindo Rodrigues, 2023. "Analysis of hourly price granularity implementation in the Brazilian deregulated electricity contracting environment," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    2. Luiz G. A. Alves & Higor Y. D. Sigaki & Matjaz Perc & Haroldo V. Ribeiro, 2020. "Collective dynamics of stock market efficiency," Papers 2011.14809, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tarcisio M. Rocha Filho & Paulo M. M. Rocha, 2019. "Inefficiency of the Brazilian Stock Market: the IBOVESPA Future Contracts," Papers 1904.09214, arXiv.org.
    2. Ashok Chanabasangouda Patil & Shailesh Rastogi, 2019. "Time-Varying Price–Volume Relationship and Adaptive Market Efficiency: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, June.
    3. Asif, Raheel & Frömmel, Michael, 2022. "Testing Long memory in exchange rates and its implications for the adaptive market hypothesis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 593(C).
    4. Wally Tzara, 2018. "The Evolution of Security Prices Is Not Stochastic but Governed by a Physicomathematical Law," Papers 1807.10114, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2019.
    5. Saker Sabkha & Christian Peretti & Dorra Hmaied, 2019. "On the informational market efficiency of the worldwide sovereign credit default swaps," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(7), pages 581-608, December.
    6. Sensoy, Ahmet & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2015. "Time-varying long term memory in the European Union stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 436(C), pages 147-158.
    7. Majumder, Debasish, 2013. "Towards an efficient stock market: Empirical evidence from the Indian market," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 572-587.
    8. Jitka Veselá & Alžběta Zíková, 2022. "Are the Czech, Polish, German and Dutch markets taking a random walk? [Konají český, polský, německý a nizozemský trh náhodnou procházku?]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2022(2), pages 19-38.
    9. Cristi Spulbar & Ramona Birau & Lucian Florin Spulbar, 2021. "A Critical Survey on Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH) and Fractal Markets Hypothesis (FMH) Considering Their Implication on Stock Markets Behavior," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(2), pages 1161-1165, December.
    10. Patrick Buckley & Fergal O’Brien, 0. "The effect of malicious manipulations on prediction market accuracy," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-13.
    11. Rompotis, Gerasimos G., 2011. "Testing weak-form efficiency of exchange traded funds market," MPRA Paper 36020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Akber, Ushna & Muhammad, Nabeel, 2013. "Is Pakistan Stock Market moving towards Weak-form efficiency? Evidence from the Karachi Stock Exchange and the Random Walk Nature of free-float of shares of KSE 30 Index," MPRA Paper 49128, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Andrea Antico & Giulio Bottazzi & Daniele Giachini, 2022. "On the evolutionary stability of the sentiment investor," LEM Papers Series 2022/09, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    14. Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2022. "Forecasting Skills in Experimental Markets: Illusion or Reality?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(7), pages 5216-5232, July.
    15. Patrick Buckley & Fergal O’Brien, 2017. "The effect of malicious manipulations on prediction market accuracy," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 611-623, June.
    16. repec:idn:journl:v:1:y:2019:i:sp1:p:1-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:prg:jnlcfu:v:2022:y:2022:i:2:id:575 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Chaker Aloui & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2014. "On the detection of extreme movements and persistent behaviour in Mediterranean stock markets: a wavelet-based approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(22), pages 2611-2622, August.
    19. Damian Pastor & Pavel Kisela & Viliam Kovac & Tomas Sabol & Viliam Vajda, 2015. "Application Of Market Valuation Models In Portfolio Management," Polish Journal of Management Studies, Czestochowa Technical University, Department of Management, vol. 12(1), pages 154-165, DEcember.
    20. Omay, Nazli C. & Karadagli, Ece C., 2010. "Testing Weak Form Market Efficiency for Emerging Economies: A Nonlinear Approach," MPRA Paper 27312, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Thomas Holtfort, 2019. "From standard to evolutionary finance: a literature survey," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 69(2), pages 207-232, June.
    22. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:543:y:2020:i:c:s0378437119317996. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.