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Analysis of the driving factors of U.S. domestic population mobility

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  • Li, Xiaomeng
  • Huang, Siyu
  • Chen, Jiawei
  • Chen, Qinghua

Abstract

There is a popular supposition that domestic population mobility in the United States has been steadily decreasing since the 1980s. However, some scholars believe the declining rate of American internal migration seems to have ‘slowed down’ obviously from 2007. This debate prompts us to quantitatively analyze the possible changes in migration patterns and the mechanisms of domestic population mobility. First, using empirical data of state-to-state migration, the paper quantifies American internal mobility and the evolution of migration patterns for the period from 2005–2015. Regional income disparities cannot explain the change in population migration patterns in the United States well. Then, the mobility barriers are estimated by an extended multilateral migration model that reveals a marked decrease in regional migration costs and an increase in individual rational choices, which are the critical factors in the structural changes in the migration pattern. Subsequently, we deconstruct the mobility barriers and indicate that in recent years, the human and natural environments had a great impact on population movement in the United States, such as the human development index, education grade, climate, cost of living index, house price index, and crime rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Xiaomeng & Huang, Siyu & Chen, Jiawei & Chen, Qinghua, 2020. "Analysis of the driving factors of U.S. domestic population mobility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 539(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:539:y:2020:i:c:s0378437119316875
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.122984
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