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Identifying drought-induced correlations in the satellite time series of hot pixels recorded in the Brazilian Amazon by means of the detrended fluctuation analysis

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  • Stosic, Tatijana
  • Telesca, Luciano
  • Lemos da Costa, Simara Lúcia
  • Stosic, Borko

Abstract

In this work we study the long-term correlations in the satellite daily number of hot pixels recorded in the Brazilian Amazon during the period 1999–2012. While the highest peak in daily hot pixel frequencies occurred in 2007, coincident with a severe drought, for other intense droughts such as that occurred in 2005 (one-in-a-hundred year event for its high severity) and 2010, the corresponding number of hot pixels recorded was compatible or lower than that reached during e.g. 2004, with no reported severe drought. On the other hand, we find that the most severe droughts coincide with the peaks of the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) scaling exponent of the time series of the daily anomalies in hot pixels. This finding is striking because it highlights the effectiveness of the DFA in disclosing that long-term hot pixel anomaly correlations are clearly associated with the drought events, that were not identifiable by examining hot pixel frequencies of the original time series. The dynamics of the time series of daily anomalies in hot pixels is, therefore, influenced by drought events. The coincidence of the peaks of the scaling exponent with drought events suggests the increase of the persistence of the hot pixel time series during the driest periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Stosic, Tatijana & Telesca, Luciano & Lemos da Costa, Simara Lúcia & Stosic, Borko, 2016. "Identifying drought-induced correlations in the satellite time series of hot pixels recorded in the Brazilian Amazon by means of the detrended fluctuation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 444(C), pages 660-666.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:444:y:2016:i:c:p:660-666
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.10.057
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. do Nascimento, Rosângela S. & de Araújo, Luiz Henrique G.D. & Moraes, Renato B. & Barbosa, Catão T.F. & Guedes, Rubem C.A. & Nogueira, Romildo A. & Stošić, Tatijana, 2010. "Analysis of signal fluctuations of Cortical Spreading Depression: Preliminary findings," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(9), pages 1869-1873.
    2. Britaldo Silveira Soares-Filho & Daniel Curtis Nepstad & Lisa M. Curran & Gustavo Coutinho Cerqueira & Ricardo Alexandrino Garcia & Claudia Azevedo Ramos & Eliane Voll & Alice McDonald & Paul Lefebvre, 2006. "Modelling conservation in the Amazon basin," Nature, Nature, vol. 440(7083), pages 520-523, March.
    3. Telesca, Luciano & Lasaponara, Rosa & Lanorte, Antonio, 2006. "1/fα fluctuations in the time dynamics of Mediterranean forest ecosystems by using normalized difference vegetation index satellite data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 361(2), pages 699-706.
    4. Siqueira, Erinaldo Leite & Stošić, Tatijana & Bejan, Lucian & Stošić, Borko, 2010. "Correlations and cross-correlations in the Brazilian agrarian commodities and stocks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(14), pages 2739-2743.
    5. Zheng, Hongyang & Song, Weiguo & Wang, Jian, 2008. "Detrended fluctuation analysis of forest fires and related weather parameters," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(8), pages 2091-2099.
    6. de Benicio, Rosilda B. & Stošić, Tatijana & de Figueirêdo, P.H. & Stošić, Borko D., 2013. "Multifractal behavior of wild-land and forest fire time series in Brazil," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(24), pages 6367-6374.
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    1. Morello, Thiago Fonseca & Parry, Luke & Markusson, Nils & Barlow, Jos, 2017. "Policy instruments to control Amazon fires: A simulation approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 199-222.

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