IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v433y2015icp171-181.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A quantitative description for efficient financial markets

Author

Listed:
  • Immonen, Eero

Abstract

In this article we develop a control system model for describing efficient financial markets. We define the efficiency of a financial market in quantitative terms by robust asymptotic price–value equality in this model. By invoking the Internal Model Principle of robust output regulation theory we then show that under No Bubble Conditions, in the proposed model, the market is efficient if and only if the following conditions hold true: (1) the traders, as a group, can identify any mispricing in asset value (even if no one single trader can do it accurately), and (2) the traders, as a group, incorporate an internal model of the value process (again, even if no one single trader knows it). This main result of the article, which deliberately avoids the requirement for investor rationality, demonstrates, in quantitative terms, that the more transparent the markets are, the more efficient they are. An extensive example is provided to illustrate the theoretical development.

Suggested Citation

  • Immonen, Eero, 2015. "A quantitative description for efficient financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 433(C), pages 171-181.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:433:y:2015:i:c:p:171-181
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.03.032
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437115002940
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2015.03.032?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January.
    2. Gavious, Arieh & Kedar-Levy, Haim, 2013. "The speed of stock price discovery," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 245-258.
    3. Schulmeister, Stephan, 2009. "Profitability of technical stock trading: Has it moved from daily to intraday data?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 190-201, October.
    4. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Suarez, Rodolfo & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos, 2003. "Trading strategies, feedback control and market dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 220-226.
    5. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    6. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    7. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186, Elsevier.
    8. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2014. "Heterogeneous expectations in asset pricing: Empirical evidence from the S&P500," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 1-16.
    9. Walker, Donald A, 1987. "Walras's Theories of Tatonnement," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(4), pages 758-774, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ivani Mausumi Bora & Manoj Kumar, 2017. "Long Term Dynamics of Indian ADRs Market: The Case of Persistence and Irregular Cycles," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(2), pages 1-71, May.
    2. Damian Pastor & Pavel Kisela & Viliam Kovac & Tomas Sabol & Viliam Vajda, 2015. "Application Of Market Valuation Models In Portfolio Management," Polish Journal of Management Studies, Czestochowa Technical University, Department of Management, vol. 12(1), pages 154-165, DEcember.
    3. Rounaghi, Mohammad Mahdi & Nassir Zadeh, Farzaneh, 2016. "Investigation of market efficiency and Financial Stability between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange: Monthly and yearly Forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns using ARMA model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 456(C), pages 10-21.
    4. Meng, Xiangyi & Zhang, Jian-Wei & Guo, Hong, 2016. "Quantum Brownian motion model for the stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 452(C), pages 281-288.
    5. Immonen, Eero, 2017. "Simple agent-based dynamical system models for efficient financial markets: Theory and examples," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 38-53.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Damian Pastor & Pavel Kisela & Viliam Kovac & Tomas Sabol & Viliam Vajda, 2015. "Application Of Market Valuation Models In Portfolio Management," Polish Journal of Management Studies, Czestochowa Technical University, Department of Management, vol. 12(1), pages 154-165, DEcember.
    2. Immonen, Eero, 2017. "Simple agent-based dynamical system models for efficient financial markets: Theory and examples," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 38-53.
    3. Szafarz, Ariane, 2012. "Financial crises in efficient markets: How fundamentalists fuel volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 105-111.
    4. Stephan Schulmeister, 2014. "A General Financial Transactions Tax. Motives, Effects and Implementation According to the Proposal of the European Commission," WIFO Working Papers 461, WIFO.
    5. Rounaghi, Mohammad Mahdi & Nassir Zadeh, Farzaneh, 2016. "Investigation of market efficiency and Financial Stability between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange: Monthly and yearly Forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns using ARMA model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 456(C), pages 10-21.
    6. Razen, Michael & Huber, Jürgen & Kirchler, Michael, 2017. "Cash inflow and trading horizon in asset markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 359-384.
    7. D. Sornette, 2014. "Physics and Financial Economics (1776-2014): Puzzles, Ising and Agent-Based models," Papers 1404.0243, arXiv.org.
    8. Michael Razen & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler, 2016. "Cash Inflow and Trading Horizon in Asset Markets," Working Papers 2016-06, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    9. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Interaction Between the Aggregate Behaviour of Technical Trading Systems and Stock Price Dynamics," WIFO Working Papers 290, WIFO.
    10. Radu T. Pruna & Maria Polukarov & Nicholas R. Jennings, 2020. "Loss aversion in an agent-based asset pricing model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 275-290, February.
    11. Farias Nazário, Rodolfo Toríbio & e Silva, Jéssica Lima & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim & Kimura, Herbert, 2017. "A literature review of technical analysis on stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 115-126.
    12. Alda, Mercedes, 2017. "The relationship between pension funds and the stock market: Does the aging population of Europe affect it?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 83-97.
    13. Yeh, Chia-Hsuan & Yang, Chun-Yi, 2010. "Examining the effectiveness of price limits in an artificial stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2089-2108, October.
    14. Hull, Matthew & McGroarty, Frank, 2014. "Do emerging markets become more efficient as they develop? Long memory persistence in equity indices," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 45-61.
    15. Gerritsen, Dirk F., 2016. "Are chartists artists? The determinants and profitability of recommendations based on technical analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 179-196.
    16. Kukacka, Jiri & Barunik, Jozef, 2017. "Estimation of financial agent-based models with simulated maximum likelihood," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 21-45.
    17. Sandrine Jacob Leal, 2015. "Fundamentalists, chartists and asset pricing anomalies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(11), pages 1837-1850, November.
    18. Didier SORNETTE, 2014. "Physics and Financial Economics (1776-2014): Puzzles, Ising and Agent-Based Models," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 14-25, Swiss Finance Institute.
    19. Stephan Schulmeister, 2009. "Technical Trading and Trends in the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 37582, January.
    20. I. Marta Miranda García & María‐Jesús Segovia‐Vargas & Usue Mori & José A. Lozano, 2023. "Early prediction of Ibex 35 movements," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(5), pages 1150-1166, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:433:y:2015:i:c:p:171-181. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.