IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v415y2014icp141-155.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time operator of Markov chains and mixing times. Applications to financial data

Author

Listed:
  • Gialampoukidis, I.
  • Gustafson, K.
  • Antoniou, I.

Abstract

We extend the notion of Time Operator from Kolmogorov Dynamical Systems and Bernoulli processes to Markov processes. The general methodology is presented and illustrated in the simple case of binary processes. We present a method to compute the eigenfunctions of the Time Operator. Internal Ages are related to other characteristic times of Markov chains, namely the Kemeny time, the convergence rate and Goodman’s intrinsic time. We clarified the concept of mixing time by providing analytic formulas for two-state Markov chains. Explicit formulas for mixing times are presented for any two-state regular Markov chain. The mixing time of a Markov chain is determined also by the Time Operator of the Markov chain, within its Age computation. We illustrate these results in terms of two realistic examples: A Markov chain from US GNP data and a Markov chain from Dow Jones closing prices. We propose moreover a representation for the Kemeny constant, in terms of internal Ages.

Suggested Citation

  • Gialampoukidis, I. & Gustafson, K. & Antoniou, I., 2014. "Time operator of Markov chains and mixing times. Applications to financial data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 415(C), pages 141-155.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:415:y:2014:i:c:p:141-155
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2014.07.084
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437114006700
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2014.07.084?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Misra, B. & Prigogine, I. & Courbage, M., 1979. "From deterministic dynamics to probabilistic descriptions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 1-26.
    2. Antoniou, I. & Gustafson, K., 1999. "Wavelets and stochastic processes," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 81-104.
    3. Gialampoukidis, I. & Gustafson, K. & Antoniou, I., 2013. "Financial Time Operator for random walk markets," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 62-72.
    4. Antoniou, I. & Sadovnichii, V.A. & Shkarin, S.A., 1999. "Time operators and shift representation of dynamical systems," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 269(2), pages 299-313.
    5. Suchanecki, Zdzislaw, 1992. "On lambda and internal time operators," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 249-266.
    6. Courbage, M., 1983. "Intrinsic irreversibility of Kolmogorov dynamical systems," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 459-482.
    7. Courbage, M. & Misra, B., 1980. "On the equivalence between Bernoulli dynamical systems and stochastic Markov processes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 359-377.
    8. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gialampoukidis, Ilias & Antoniou, Ioannis, 2015. "Age, Innovations and Time Operator of Networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 432(C), pages 140-155.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gialampoukidis, Ilias & Antoniou, Ioannis, 2015. "Age, Innovations and Time Operator of Networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 432(C), pages 140-155.
    2. Gialampoukidis, I. & Gustafson, K. & Antoniou, I., 2013. "Financial Time Operator for random walk markets," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 62-72.
    3. Miloš Milovanović & Nicoletta Saulig, 2022. "An Intensional Probability Theory: Investigating the Link between Classical and Quantum Probabilities," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(22), pages 1-16, November.
    4. Miloš Milovanović & Nicoletta Saulig, 2024. "The Duality of Psychological and Intrinsic Time in Artworks," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-14, June.
    5. Miloš Milovanović & Srđan Vukmirović & Nicoletta Saulig, 2021. "Stochastic Analysis of the Time Continuum," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-20, June.
    6. Milan Kumar Das & Anindya Goswami, 2019. "Testing of binary regime switching models using squeeze duration analysis," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(01), pages 1-20, March.
    7. Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 829-850.
    8. David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 2003. "Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 1-30, February.
    9. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    10. Perron, Pierre & Wada, Tatsuma, 2016. "Measuring business cycles with structural breaks and outliers: Applications to international data," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 281-303.
    11. Nemati, Mehdi & Saghaian, Sayed H., 2016. "Dynamics of Price Adjustment in Qualitatively Differentiated Markets in the U.S.: The Case of Organic and Conventional Apples," 2016 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2016, San Antonio, Texas 229950, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    12. Flavin, Thomas J. & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Unalmis, Deren, 2008. "On the stability of domestic financial market linkages in the presence of time-varying volatility," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 280-301, December.
    13. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2008. "Non-stationarity and Non-linearity in Stock Prices: Evidence from the OECD Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(11), pages 1-11.
    14. David Bolder & Shudan Liu, 2007. "Examining Simple Joint Macroeconomic and Term-Structure Models: A Practitioner's Perspective," Staff Working Papers 07-49, Bank of Canada.
    15. Candelon, Bertrand & Lieb, Lenard, 2013. "Fiscal policy in good and bad times," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2679-2694.
    16. Francesco Bianchi, 2013. "Regime Switches, Agents' Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 463-490.
    17. Saki Bigio & Eduardo Zilberman, 2020. "Speculation-Driven Business Cycles," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 865, Central Bank of Chile.
    18. René Garcia & Richard Luger & Eric Renault, 2000. "Asymmetric Smiles, Leverage Effects and Structural Parameters," Working Papers 2000-57, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    19. Muñoz, Mª Pilar & Márquez, María Dolores & Sánchez, Josep A., 2011. "Contagion between United States and european markets during the recent crises," MPRA Paper 35993, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Garcia, Rene, 1998. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 763-788, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:415:y:2014:i:c:p:141-155. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.