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Empirical analysis on future-cash arbitrage risk with portfolio VaR

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Rongda
  • Li, Cong
  • Wang, Weijin
  • Wang, Ze

Abstract

This paper constructs the positive arbitrage position by alternating the spot index with Chinese Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) portfolio and estimating the arbitrage-free interval of futures with the latest trade data. Then, an improved Delta-normal method was used, which replaces the simple linear correlation coefficient with tail dependence correlation coefficient, to measure VaR (Value-at-risk) of the arbitrage position. Analysis of VaR implies that the risk of future-cash arbitrage is less than that of investing completely in either futures or spot market. Then according to the compositional VaR and the marginal VaR, we should increase the futures position and decrease the spot position appropriately to minimize the VaR, which can minimize risk subject to certain revenues.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Rongda & Li, Cong & Wang, Weijin & Wang, Ze, 2014. "Empirical analysis on future-cash arbitrage risk with portfolio VaR," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 398(C), pages 210-216.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:398:y:2014:i:c:p:210-216
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2013.12.017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Najafi, Amir Abbas & Pourahmadi, Zahra, 2016. "An efficient heuristic method for dynamic portfolio selection problem under transaction costs and uncertain conditions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 448(C), pages 154-162.
    3. Enrique Molina‐Muñoz & Andrés Mora‐Valencia & Javier Perote, 2021. "Backtesting expected shortfall for world stock index ETFs with extreme value theory and Gram–Charlier mixtures," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4163-4189, July.
    4. Liu, Guangqiang & Wei, Yu & Chen, Yongfei & Yu, Jiang & Hu, Yang, 2018. "Forecasting the value-at-risk of Chinese stock market using the HARQ model and extreme value theory," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 499(C), pages 288-297.

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