IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v392y2013i15p3213-3222.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A jump diffusion model for spot electricity prices and market price of risk

Author

Listed:
  • Bhar, Ramaprasad
  • Colwell, David B.
  • Xiao, Yuewen

Abstract

We construct a jump-diffusion model with seasonality, mean-reversion, time-dependent jump intensity and heteroskedastic disturbance for electricity spot prices, while keeping the analytical tractability of futures prices. We find that the jump component plays a considerably larger role than the diffusion component in the variance of spot prices. Moreover, the jump intensity is much higher during summer and winter. We also explore the seasonal market price of risk (MPR) with different maturities, from one month to five months. Our results show that the diffusion risk and the jump risk are priced quite differently.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhar, Ramaprasad & Colwell, David B. & Xiao, Yuewen, 2013. "A jump diffusion model for spot electricity prices and market price of risk," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(15), pages 3213-3222.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:392:y:2013:i:15:p:3213-3222
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2013.03.026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437113002434
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2013.03.026?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ramaprasad Bhar, 2010. "Stochastic Filtering with Applications in Finance," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 7736, August.
    2. Pan, Jun, 2002. "The jump-risk premia implicit in options: evidence from an integrated time-series study," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 3-50, January.
    3. Viehmann, Johannes, 2011. "Risk premiums in the German day-ahead Electricity Market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 386-394, January.
    4. Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
    5. Weron, R & Bierbrauer, M & Trück, S, 2004. "Modeling electricity prices: jump diffusion and regime switching," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 336(1), pages 39-48.
    6. Chang, Kook-Hyun & Kim, Myung-Jig, 2001. "Jumps and time-varying correlations in daily foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 611-637, October.
    7. Alvaro Escribano & J. Ignacio Peña & Pablo Villaplana, 2011. "Modelling Electricity Prices: International Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(5), pages 622-650, October.
    8. Tomas Björk & Yuri Kabanov & Wolfgang Runggaldier, 1997. "Bond Market Structure in the Presence of Marked Point Processes," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 211-239, April.
    9. Deng, S.J. & Oren, S.S., 2006. "Electricity derivatives and risk management," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 940-953.
    10. Bierbrauer, Michael & Menn, Christian & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Truck, Stefan, 2007. "Spot and derivative pricing in the EEX power market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3462-3485, November.
    11. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
    12. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1877-1900 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Deschatre, Thomas & Féron, Olivier & Gruet, Pierre, 2021. "A survey of electricity spot and futures price models for risk management applications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    2. Elmore, Clay T. & Dowling, Alexander W., 2021. "Learning spatiotemporal dynamics in wholesale energy markets with dynamic mode decomposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    3. Xiao, Weilin & Zhang, Xili, 2016. "Pricing equity warrants with a promised lowest price in Merton’s jump–diffusion model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 458(C), pages 219-238.
    4. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    5. G P Girish & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2016. "A comparison of different univariate forecasting models forSpot Electricity Price in India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 1039-1057.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michel Culot & Valérie Goffin & Steve Lawford & Sébastien de Meten & Yves Smeers, 2013. "Practical stochastic modelling of electricity prices," Post-Print hal-01021603, HAL.
    2. Villaplana Conde, Pablo, 2003. "Pricing power derivatives: a two-factor jump-diffusion approach," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb031805, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    3. Iván Blanco, Juan Ignacio Peña, and Rosa Rodriguez, 2018. "Modelling Electricity Swaps with Stochastic Forward Premium Models," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    4. Paraschiv, Florentina, 2013. "Price Dynamics in Electricity Markets," Working Papers on Finance 1314, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    5. Ewald, Christian & Zou, Yihan, 2021. "Analytic formulas for futures and options for a linear quadratic jump diffusion model with seasonal stochastic volatility and convenience yield: Do fish jump?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(2), pages 801-815.
    6. Gudkov, Nikolay & Ignatieva, Katja, 2021. "Electricity price modelling with stochastic volatility and jumps: An empirical investigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    7. Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo Figueroa, 2005. "Pricing in Electricity Markets: A Mean Reverting Jump Diffusion Model with Seasonality," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 313-335.
    8. George Daskalakis, Lazaros Symeonidis, Raphael N. Markellos, 2015. "Electricity futures prices in an emissions constrained economy: Evidence from European power markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    9. Richter, Martin & Sørensen, Carsten, 2002. "Stochastic Volatility and Seasonality in Commodity Futures and Options: The Case of Soybeans," Working Papers 2002-4, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance.
    10. Erhan Bayraktar & Li Chen & H. Vincent Poor, 2005. "Consistency Problems for Jump-diffusion Models," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 101-119.
    11. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    12. Godin, Frédéric & Ibrahim, Zinatu, 2021. "An analysis of electricity congestion price patterns in North America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    13. Aiube, Fernando Antonio Lucena & Baidya, Tara Keshar Nanda & Tito, Edison Americo Huarsaya, 2008. "Analysis of commodity prices with the particle filter," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 597-605, March.
    14. Doran, James S. & Ronn, Ehud I., 2008. "Computing the market price of volatility risk in the energy commodity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2541-2552, December.
    15. Niu, Shilei & Insley, Margaret, 2016. "An options pricing approach to ramping rate restrictions at hydro power plants," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 25-52.
    16. Peixuan Yuan, 2022. "Time-Varying Skew in VIX Derivatives Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(10), pages 7761-7791, October.
    17. Deschatre, Thomas & Féron, Olivier & Gruet, Pierre, 2021. "A survey of electricity spot and futures price models for risk management applications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    18. Mark Broadie & Jerome B. Detemple, 2004. "ANNIVERSARY ARTICLE: Option Pricing: Valuation Models and Applications," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1145-1177, September.
    19. Mayer, Klaus & Trück, Stefan, 2018. "Electricity markets around the world," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 77-100.
    20. Nomikos, Nikos K. & Soldatos, Orestes A., 2010. "Modelling short and long-term risks in power markets: Empirical evidence from Nord Pool," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5671-5683, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:392:y:2013:i:15:p:3213-3222. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.