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Parameter inference in small world network disease models with approximate Bayesian Computational methods

Author

Listed:
  • Walker, David M.
  • Allingham, David
  • Lee, Heung Wing Joseph
  • Small, Michael

Abstract

Small world network models have been effective in capturing the variable behaviour of reported case data of the SARS coronavirus outbreak in Hong Kong during 2003. Simulations of these models have previously been realized using informed “guesses” of the proposed model parameters and tested for consistency with the reported data by surrogate analysis. In this paper we attempt to provide statistically rigorous parameter distributions using Approximate Bayesian Computation sampling methods. We find that such sampling schemes are a useful framework for fitting parameters of stochastic small world network models where simulation of the system is straightforward but expressing a likelihood is cumbersome.

Suggested Citation

  • Walker, David M. & Allingham, David & Lee, Heung Wing Joseph & Small, Michael, 2010. "Parameter inference in small world network disease models with approximate Bayesian Computational methods," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(3), pages 540-548.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:389:y:2010:i:3:p:540-548
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2009.09.053
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Cyranoski & Alison Abbott, 2003. "Apartment complex holds clues to pandemic potential of SARS," Nature, Nature, vol. 423(6935), pages 3-4, May.
    2. Steven H. Strogatz, 2001. "Exploring complex networks," Nature, Nature, vol. 410(6825), pages 268-276, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maeno, Yoshiharu, 2016. "Detecting a trend change in cross-border epidemic transmission," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 457(C), pages 73-81.
    2. Maeno, Yoshiharu, 2010. "Discovering network behind infectious disease outbreak," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4755-4768.
    3. Maeno, Yoshiharu, 2011. "Discovery of a missing disease spreader," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(20), pages 3412-3426.

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