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A roof over your head; house price peaks in the UK and Ireland

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  • Richmond, Peter

Abstract

We analyse, following recent work of Roehner, changes in house prices for both the UK and Ireland. We conclude that prices in the UK/London have reached a tipping point and relative to inflation are set to fall over the next few years. House prices (again relative to inflation) in Ireland are shown to have broken away from the more moderate rises found in the provinces of mainland UK, and Dublin seems to have emerged as another global ‘hot’ spot. An evolution similar to that in London can be anticipated.

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  • Richmond, Peter, 2007. "A roof over your head; house price peaks in the UK and Ireland," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 375(1), pages 281-287.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:375:y:2007:i:1:p:281-287
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2006.09.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dirk Helbing & Martin Schönhof & Hans-Ulrich Stark & Janusz A. Hołyst, 2005. "How Individuals Learn To Take Turns: Emergence Of Alternating Cooperation In A Congestion Game And The Prisoner'S Dilemma," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 87-116.
    2. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2006. "Is there a real-estate bubble in the US?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 361(1), pages 297-308.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Richmond & Bertrand M. Roehner, 2016. "Property bubble in Hong Kong: A predicted decade-long slump (2016-2025)," Papers 1608.03985, arXiv.org.
    2. Tie-Ying Liu & Hsu-Ling Chang & Chi-Wei Su & Xu-Zhao Jiang, 2016. "China's housing bubble burst?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 24(2), pages 361-389, April.
    3. Wen-Yuan Lin & I-Chun Tsai, 2016. "Asymmetric Fluctuating Behavior of China's Housing Prices," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 24(2), pages 107-126, March.
    4. Peter Richmond & Bertrand M. Roehner, 2017. "Property bubble in Hong Kong: A predicted decade-long slump (2016–2025)," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 79-99, June.
    5. David Gray, 2020. "An international housing market in the British Isles: Evidence from business and medium-term cycles using a Friedman test," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 57(2), pages 307-322, February.
    6. Zheng, Zhiyong & Lu, Yunfan & Zhang, Junhuan, 2022. "Multiscale complexity fluctuation behaviours of stochastic interacting cryptocurrency price model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 593(C).
    7. Marcelo M. de Oliveira & Alexandre C. L. Almeida, 2014. "Testing for rational speculative bubbles in the Brazilian residential real-estate market," Papers 1401.7615, arXiv.org.
    8. Chen, Zhiping & Duan, Qihong, 2011. "New models of trader beliefs and their application for explaining financial bubbles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2215-2227, September.
    9. Wang, Gang-Jin & Xie, Chi, 2015. "Correlation structure and dynamics of international real estate securities markets: A network perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 424(C), pages 176-193.
    10. Bertrand M. Roehner, 2010. "Fifteen years of econophysics: worries, hopes and prospects," Papers 1004.3229, arXiv.org.
    11. Marcin Wk{a}torek & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z & Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Ludovico Minati & Pawe{l} O'swik{e}cimka & Marek Stanuszek, 2020. "Multiscale characteristics of the emerging global cryptocurrency market," Papers 2010.15403, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.

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