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Underlying dynamics of typical fluctuations of an emerging market price index: The Heston model from minutes to months

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  • Vicente, Renato
  • de Toledo, Charles M.
  • Leite, Vitor B.P.
  • Caticha, Nestor

Abstract

We investigate the Heston model with stochastic volatility and exponential tails as a model for the typical price fluctuations of the Brazilian São Paulo Stock Exchange Index (IBOVESPA). Raw prices are first corrected for inflation and a period spanning 15 years characterized by memoryless returns is chosen for the analysis. Model parameters are estimated by observing volatility scaling and correlation properties. We show that the Heston model with at least two time scales for the volatility mean reverting dynamics satisfactorily describes price fluctuations ranging from time scales larger than 20min to 160days. At time scales shorter than 20min we observe autocorrelated returns and power law tails incompatible with the Heston model. Despite major regulatory changes, hyperinflation and currency crises experienced by the Brazilian market in the period studied, the general success of the description provided may be regarded as an evidence for a general underlying dynamics of price fluctuations at intermediate mesoeconomic time scales well approximated by the Heston model. We also notice that the connection between the Heston model and Ehrenfest urn models could be exploited for bringing new insights into the microeconomic market mechanics.

Suggested Citation

  • Vicente, Renato & de Toledo, Charles M. & Leite, Vitor B.P. & Caticha, Nestor, 2006. "Underlying dynamics of typical fluctuations of an emerging market price index: The Heston model from minutes to months," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 361(1), pages 272-288.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:361:y:2006:i:1:p:272-288
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2005.06.095
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roehner,Bertrand M., 2002. "Patterns of Speculation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521802635, October.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Dong, Yang & Wen, Shu-hui & Hu, Xiao-bing & Li, Jiang-Cheng, 2020. "Stochastic resonance of drawdown risk in energy market prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    4. Andreas Behr & Ulrich Pötter, 2009. "Alternatives to the normal model of stock returns: Gaussian mixture, generalised logF and generalised hyperbolic models," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 49-68, January.
    5. Cassidy, Daniel T. & Hamp, Michael J. & Ouyed, Rachid, 2010. "Pricing European options with a log Student’s t-distribution: A Gosset formula," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(24), pages 5736-5748.
    6. Marcin Wk{a}torek & Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z, 2021. "Financial Return Distributions: Past, Present, and COVID-19," Papers 2107.06659, arXiv.org.
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    8. Cassidy, Daniel T., 2011. "Describing n-day returns with Student’s t-distributions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(15), pages 2794-2802.
    9. Ramos, Antônio M.T. & Carvalho, J.A. & Vasconcelos, G.L., 2016. "Exponential model for option prices: Application to the Brazilian market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 445(C), pages 161-168.

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