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Power-law periodicity in the 2003–2004 crude oil price dynamics

Author

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  • Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose
  • Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos
  • Bernabe, Araceli
  • Rodriguez, Eduardo

Abstract

In recent months, the crude oil market has shown an abnormal behavior as compared with the previous 20 years. The most relevant feature of it being the high-level prices, well beyond the most pessimistic forecasting of a couple of years ago. The aim of this paper is to show that the crude oil price dynamics in the period from mid-2003 to late-2004 can be described by a piecewise linear increasing trend plus an oscillatory behavior with power-law periodicity. In about mid-December 2003, a transition in the period of the price oscillations was detected. Before and after such a date, the oscillation period decreased and increased with time, respectively. Additionally, after July, 2004, the slope of the trend has suffered a 200% increment, which may indicate that the market instability is becoming stronger.

Suggested Citation

  • Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos & Bernabe, Araceli & Rodriguez, Eduardo, 2005. "Power-law periodicity in the 2003–2004 crude oil price dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 349(3), pages 625-640.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:349:y:2005:i:3:p:625-640
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2004.11.017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Clark, Andrew, 2004. "Evidence of log-periodicity in corporate bond spreads," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 338(3), pages 585-595.
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    5. Bernabe, Araceli & Martina, Esteban & Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos, 2004. "A multi-model approach for describing crude oil price dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 338(3), pages 567-584.
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    Cited by:

    1. García-Carranco, Sergio M. & Bory-Reyes, Juan & Balankin, Alexander S., 2016. "The crude oil price bubbling and universal scaling dynamics of price volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 452(C), pages 60-68.

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