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Value at risk and the cross-section of expected returns: Evidence from China

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  • Gui, Pingshu
  • Zhu, Yifeng

Abstract

In the Chinese stock market, we find that the cross-sectional relation between value-at-risk (VaR) and expected returns is unclear, which is different from the recent findings in the United States. Additionally, VaR is negatively related with expected returns and cannot be explained by idiosyncratic volatility, momentum, short-term reversal, or maximum daily return during a high consumer confidence period. In contrast, no significant relation is observed between VaR and expected returns during a period of low consumer confidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Gui, Pingshu & Zhu, Yifeng, 2021. "Value at risk and the cross-section of expected returns: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:66:y:2021:i:c:s0927538x21000056
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2021.101498
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    Cited by:

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    3. Eom, Cheoljun & Eom, Yunsung & Park, Jong Won, 2023. "Left-tail momentum and tail properties of return distributions: A case of Korea," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    4. Yang, Liuyong & Long, Yijia & Long, Huaigang & Zaremba, Adam & Zhou, Wenyu, 2022. "Is tail risk priced in the cross-section of Chinese mutual fund returns?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
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    6. Wang, Chen & Xiong, Xiong & Shen, Dehua, 2022. "Tail risks, firm characteristics, and stock returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Khasawneh, Maher & McMillan, David G. & Kambouroudis, Dimos, 2024. "Left-tail risk and UK stock return predictability: Underreaction, overreaction, and arbitrage difficulties," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Value-at-risk; Cross-sectional relation; Equity returns; Consumer confidence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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