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Modelling volatility spillovers from the US equity market to ASEAN stock markets

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  • Vo, Xuan Vinh
  • Tran, Thi Tuan Anh

Abstract

An important aspect of increased international financial integration is the associated increase in volatility spillover. Analyzing volatility spillovers from advanced economies to emerging economies is clearly important for portfolio investment and risk management. This paper investigates volatility spillovers from the US equity market to stock markets of ASEAN economies. We use the augmented EGARCH model with the ICSS algorithm to control for the excessive volatility break over an extended period. We document a significant volatility spillover from the US to ASEAN equity markets and this finding is vital to investors. The paper has strong practical importance because an accurate prediction of volatility spillovers in international equity markets is crucial for mitigating portfolio risk.

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  • Vo, Xuan Vinh & Tran, Thi Tuan Anh, 2020. "Modelling volatility spillovers from the US equity market to ASEAN stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:59:y:2020:i:c:s0927538x19301635
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2019.101246
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    2. Zhong, Yi & Liu, Jiapeng, 2021. "Correlations and volatility spillovers between China and Southeast Asian stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 57-69.
    3. Cao, Li & Jiang, Junhua & Piljak, Vanja, 2023. "Did mega-regional trade agreements reshuffle the financial influence of the US, China, and Japan in ASEAN? Evidence from the volatility-spillover effects," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Tumala, Mohammed M. & Atoi, Ngozi V. & Karimo, Tari M., 2023. "Returns and Volatility Spillover between Nigeria and Selected Global Stock Markets: A Diebold-Yilmaz Approach," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 76(2), pages 173-208.
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    6. Kalu O. Emenike, 2021. "Interdependence among West African stock markets: A dimension of regional financial integration," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(2), pages 288-299, June.
    7. Chao Liang & Yongan Xu & Zhonglu Chen & Xiafei Li, 2023. "Forecasting China's stock market volatility with shrinkage method: Can Adaptive Lasso select stronger predictors from numerous predictors?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3689-3699, October.
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    9. Louis Logogye & Godfred Aawaar & Kwasi Poku, 2024. "Regional and global shock spillovers to Africa’s equity markets: evidence from the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(12), pages 1-31, December.
    10. Choi, Sun-Yong, 2022. "Dynamic volatility spillovers between industries in the US stock market: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic and Black Monday," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    11. Sheng, Lin Wen & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Sen, Ding & Hao, Zhu Shi, 2024. "The asymmetric volatility spillover across Shanghai, Hong Kong and the U.S. stock markets: A regime weighted measure and its forecast inference," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    12. Samet Gunay & Walid Bakry & Somar Al-Mohamad, 2021. "The Australian Stock Market’s Reaction to the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Black Summer Bushfires: A Sectoral Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, April.
    13. Liow, Kim Hiang & Song, Jeongseop, 2020. "Dynamic interdependence of ASEAN5 with G5 stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    14. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Muhammad Akram Gilal & Wing-Keung Wong, 2021. "Sustainability of Global Economic Policy and Stock Market Returns in Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    15. Li, Wenqi, 2021. "COVID-19 and asymmetric volatility spillovers across global stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    16. Salachas, Evangelos & Kouretas, Georgios P. & Laopodis, Nikiforos T. & Vlamis, Prodromos, 2024. "Stock market spillovers of global risks and hedging opportunities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    17. Sun, Qingru & Gao, Xiangyun & An, Haizhong & Guo, Sui & Liu, Xueyong & Wang, Ze, 2021. "Which time-frequency domain dominates spillover in the Chinese energy stock market?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    18. Bouri, Elie & Harb, Etienne, 2022. "The size of good and bad volatility shocks does matter for spillovers," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    19. Xu, Yahua & Xiao, Jun & Zhang, Liguo, 2020. "Global predictive power of the upside and downside variances of the U.S. equity market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 605-619.
    20. Caner Özdurak & Derya Hekim, 2024. "Beyond the Silicon Valley of the East: Exploring Portfolio Diversification with India and MINT Economies," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-16, June.
    21. Zhang, Yi & Zhou, Long & Chen, Yajiao & Liu, Fang, 2022. "The contagion effect of jump risk across Asian stock markets during the Covid-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ASEAN; ICSS; EGARCH; Volatility Spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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