IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pacfin/v32y2015icp21-39.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic factors and asset pricing: International and further U.S. evidence

Author

Listed:
  • He, Zhongzhi (Lawrence)
  • Zhu, Jie
  • Zhu, Xiaoneng

Abstract

The Fama–French pricing model with dynamic factors (DFPM) extracted via the Kalman filter from the six size and book-to-market portfolios has a good performance in understanding stock returns. Using international stock market data, we find that the DFPM significantly improves the cross-sectional explanatory power of the Fama–French three-factor model. In the out-of-sample exercise, we find that the DFPM predicts portfolio returns more accurately than other competing models. The good forecasting performance of the DFPM is economically meaningful because the DFPM generally delivers significant utility gains in asset allocation.

Suggested Citation

  • He, Zhongzhi (Lawrence) & Zhu, Jie & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2015. "Dynamic factors and asset pricing: International and further U.S. evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 21-39.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:32:y:2015:i:c:p:21-39
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2015.02.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X15000244
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.pacfin.2015.02.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    2. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Conditioning Variables and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1325-1360, August.
    3. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1743-1776 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1975-1999 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan & Shanken, Jay, 2010. "A skeptical appraisal of asset pricing tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 175-194, May.
    6. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard & Zhu, Jie, 2010. "Long memory in stock market volatility and the volatility-in-mean effect: The FIEGARCH-M Model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 460-470, June.
    7. Ľuboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2009. "Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1583-1628, August.
    8. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
    9. Pasquale Della Corte & Lucio Sarno & Ilias Tsiakas, 2009. "An Economic Evaluation of Empirical Exchange Rate Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3491-3530, September.
    10. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2012. "Size, value, and momentum in international stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 457-472.
    11. John M. Griffin, 2002. "Are the Fama and French Factors Global or Country Specific?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 783-803.
    12. Joao Gomes & Leonid Kogan & Lu Zhang, 2003. "Equilibrium Cross Section of Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(4), pages 693-732, August.
    13. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
    14. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    15. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Combination Forecasts and Links to the Real Economy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 821-862, February.
    16. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    17. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. "Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-1578, December.
    18. Brandt, Michael W. & Kang, Qiang, 2004. "On the relationship between the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns: A latent VAR approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 217-257, May.
    19. Chan, Louis K C & Hamao, Yasushi & Lakonishok, Josef, 1991. "Fundamentals and Stock Returns in Japan," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1739-1764, December.
    20. Zhu, Xiaoneng & Zhu, Jie, 2013. "Predicting stock returns: A regime-switching combination approach and economic links," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4120-4133.
    21. Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti & Jay Shanken, 2013. "Pricing Model Performance and the Two‐Pass Cross‐Sectional Regression Methodology," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2617-2649, December.
    22. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    23. Hahn, Jaehoon & Lee, Hangyong, 2006. "Yield Spreads as Alternative Risk Factors for Size and Book-to-Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 245-269, June.
    24. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green & Vasant Naik, 1999. "Optimal Investment, Growth Options, and Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1553-1607, October.
    25. Shanken, Jay, 1992. "On the Estimation of Beta-Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33.
    26. Jeff Fleming & Chris Kirby & Barbara Ostdiek, 2001. "The Economic Value of Volatility Timing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 329-352, February.
    27. Ralitsa Petkova, 2006. "Do the Fama–French Factors Proxy for Innovations in Predictive Variables?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 581-612, April.
    28. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    29. Oleg Rytchkov, 2012. "Filtering Out Expected Dividends and Expected Returns," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(03), pages 1-56.
    30. Xiaoneng Zhu, 2015. "Tug-of-War: Time-Varying Predictability of Stock Returns and Dividend Growth," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(6), pages 2317-2358.
    31. JULES H. Van BINSBERGEN & RALPH S. J. KOIJEN, 2010. "Predictive Regressions: A Present‐Value Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1439-1471, August.
    32. Kewei Hou & G. Andrew Karolyi & Bong-Chan Kho, 2011. "What Factors Drive Global Stock Returns?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(8), pages 2527-2574.
    33. He, Zhongzhi (Lawrence) & Huh, Sahn-Wook & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2010. "Dynamic Factors and Asset Pricing," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 707-737, June.
    34. Simin, Timothy, 2008. "The Poor Predictive Performance of Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 355-380, June.
    35. Nikolay Gospodinov & Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti, 2014. "Spurious Inference in Unidentified Asset-Pricing Models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    36. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    37. Petkova, Ralitsa & Zhang, Lu, 2005. "Is value riskier than growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 187-202, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Junping & Xiong, Xiong & Zhu, Jie & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2017. "Asset prices and economic fluctuations: The implications of stochastic volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 128-140.
    2. Amendola, Alessandra & Candila, Vincenzo & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2019. "On the asymmetric impact of macro–variables on volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 135-152.
    3. He, Zhongzhi (Lawrence) & Zhu, Jie & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2015. "Multi-factor volatility and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S2), pages 132-149.
    4. Jiang, Minqi & Liu, Jiapeng & Zhang, Lu, 2021. "An extended regularized Kalman filter based on Genetic Algorithm: Application to dynamic asset pricing models," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 28-44.
    5. Yao, Haixiang & Xia, Shenghao & Liu, Hao, 2022. "Six-factor asset pricing and portfolio investment via deep learning: Evidence from Chinese stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Junping & Xiong, Xiong & Zhu, Jie & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2017. "Asset prices and economic fluctuations: The implications of stochastic volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 128-140.
    2. He, Zhongzhi (Lawrence) & Zhu, Jie & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2015. "Multi-factor volatility and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S2), pages 132-149.
    3. Maio, Paulo & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2012. "Multifactor models and their consistency with the ICAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 586-613.
    4. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2014. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(7), pages 1772-1791, July.
    5. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert & Wang, Zijun & Yang, Jian, 2009. "Is the Value Premium a Proxy for Time-Varying Investment Opportunities? Some Time-Series Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 133-154, February.
    6. Victoria Atanasov & Thomas Nitschka, 2013. "The Size Effect in Value and Momentum Factors: Implications for the Cross-section of International Stock Returns," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-180/IV/DSF66, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Sotiria Plastira, 2014. "Fama French factors and US stock return predictability," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 15(2), pages 110-128, April.
    8. Qi Shi & Bin Li & Adrian (Wai Kong) Cheung & Richard Chung, 2017. "Augmenting the intertemporal CAPM with inflation: Further evidence from alternative models," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 42(4), pages 653-672, November.
    9. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    10. Du, Ding, 2013. "Another look at the cross-section and time-series of stock returns: 1951 to 2011," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 130-146.
    11. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-101, July.
    12. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2015. "Regression-based estimation of dynamic asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 211-244.
    13. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2018. "Economic activity and momentum profits: Further evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 466-482.
    14. Kathrin Tauscher & Martin Wallmeier, 2016. "Portfolio Overlapping Bias in Tests of the Fama–French Three†Factor Model," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), pages 367-393, June.
    15. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert, 2010. "Relation between time-series and cross-sectional effects of idiosyncratic variance on stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1637-1649, July.
    16. J. Davies & Jonathan Fletcher & Andrew Marshall, 2015. "Testing index-based models in U.K. stock returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 337-362, August.
    17. Kolari, James W. & Huang, Jianhua Z. & Butt, Hilal Anwar & Liao, Huiling, 2022. "International tests of the ZCAPM asset pricing model," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    18. Ahmed, Shamim & Liu, Xiaoquan & Valente, Giorgio, 2016. "Can currency-based risk factors help forecast exchange rates?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 75-97.
    19. Cooper, Michael J. & Gubellini, Stefano, 2011. "The critical role of conditioning information in determining if value is really riskier than growth," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 289-305, March.
    20. Hanauer, Matthias X. & Lauterbach, Jochim G., 2019. "The cross-section of emerging market stock returns," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 265-286.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International stock markets; Cross-sectional returns; Out-of-sample predictability; Asset allocation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:32:y:2015:i:c:p:21-39. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.