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Does the value of recommendations depend on the level of optimism? A country-based analysis

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  • Balboa, Marina
  • Gomez-Sala, Juan Carlos
  • Lopez-Espinosa, German

Abstract

This paper analyzes the value of analysts' consensus recommendations and their changes in eight developed stock markets using data from Factset/JCF, in the period from January 1994 to December 2006. Results show that analysts are optimistically biased, albeit to a different degree in each country; issuing a much higher number of buy than sell recommendations. Sell recommendations seem to be a stronger signal than buy recommendations and the latter are more valuable in countries with a low optimism bias. Consensus changes are a valuable tool for making investment decisions in every country, independently of the level of bias. Thus, the level of bias of each country matters in consensus levels but not in consensus changes. The value of analysts' outputs is ultimately an empirical question with meaningful implications for practitioners and academics, since they can focus on the relevant variables when making investment decisions or analyzing firms' future prospects.

Suggested Citation

  • Balboa, Marina & Gomez-Sala, Juan Carlos & Lopez-Espinosa, German, 2008. "Does the value of recommendations depend on the level of optimism? A country-based analysis," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 405-426, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:mulfin:v:18:y:2008:i:4:p:405-426
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    2. Osman Yukselturk & Jon Tucker, 2015. "The impact of analyst sentiment on UK stock recommendations and target prices," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6-7), pages 869-904, December.
    3. James S. Doran & Andy Fodor & Kevin Krieger, 2010. "Option Market Efficiency and Analyst Recommendations," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5-6), pages 560-590.
    4. James S. Doran & Andy Fodor & Kevin Krieger, 2010. "Option Market Efficiency and Analyst Recommendations," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5‐6), pages 560-590, June.
    5. Davide Lanfranchi & Laura Grassi, 2021. "Translating technological innovation into efficiency: the case of US public P&C insurance companies," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(4), pages 565-585, December.
    6. Daniel Arand & Alexander Kerl & Andreas Walter, 2015. "When Do Sell†side Analyst Reports Really Matter? Shareholder Protection, Institutional Investors and the Informativeness of Equity Research," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 21(3), pages 524-555, June.
    7. del Río, Cristina & Ferrer, Elena & López-Arceiz, Francisco J., 2024. "Analyst optimism and market sentiment: Evidence from European corporate sustainability reporters," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    8. Park, Sung Jun & Park, Ki Young, 2019. "Can investors profit from security analyst recommendations?: New evidence on the value of consensus recommendations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 403-413.

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