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Through scarcity to prosperity: Toward a theory of sustainable growth

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  • Peretto, Pietro F.

Abstract

To make progress toward a comprehensive theory of sustainable growth, this paper integrates fertility choice and exhaustible resource dynamics in a tractable model of endogenous technological change. The model identifies conditions under which the interdependence of population, resources and technology produces a transition that consists of three phases: (1) an initial phase where agents exploit exhaustible natural resources to support population growth; (2) an intermediate phase where agents turn on the Schumpeterian engine of endogenous innovation in response to population-led market expansion; (3) a terminal phase where knowledge accumulation becomes the sole engine of growth. The last phase is crucial: not only economic growth no longer requires growth of physical inputs, but technological change also compensates for the exhaustion of the natural resource.

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  • Peretto, Pietro F., 2021. "Through scarcity to prosperity: Toward a theory of sustainable growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 243-257.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:117:y:2021:i:c:p:243-257
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.01.004
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    2. Gomes Orlando, 2024. "Economic Growth in the Age of Ubiquitous Threats: How Global Risks are Reshaping Growth Theory," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-15, January.
    3. Zhou, Yuwen & Tian, Lixin & Yang, Xiaoguang & Wan, Bingyue, 2024. "Robust green Schumpeterian endogenous growth model and spatial Kuznets curve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Zhou, Yuwen & Tian, Lixin & Yang, Xiaoguang, 2023. "Schumpeterian endogenous growth model under green innovation and its enculturation effect," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    5. Maria Alejandra Torres León, 2022. "Go green or go home? Energy transition, directed technical change and wage inequalit," Documentos CEDE 20104, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    6. Peretto, Pietro & Valente, Simone, 2024. "Sustainable Growth and Secular Trends," MPRA Paper 120828, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Liu, Yishuang & Huang, Jinpeng & Xu, Jianxiang & Xiong, Shufei, 2024. "Natural resource dependence and sustainable development policy: Insights from city-level analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    8. Jakob B. Madsen & Antonio Minniti & Francesco Venturini, 2023. "The long‐run investment effect of taxation in OECD countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(358), pages 584-611, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endogenous Growth; Market Structure; Natural Resources;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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