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Fiscal forward guidance: A case for selective transparency

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  • Fujiwara, Ippei
  • Waki, Yuichiro

Abstract

Should the fiscal authority use forward guidance to reduce future policy uncertainty perceived by private agents? Using dynamic general equilibrium models, we examine the welfare effects of announcing future fiscal policy shocks and show that selective transparency is desirable — announcing distortionary future policy shocks can be detrimental to ex ante social welfare, whereas announcing non-distortionary shocks generally improves welfare. Sizable welfare gains are found with constructive ambiguity regarding the timing of a tax increase in a realistic fiscal consolidation scenario. However, being secretive about distortionary shocks is time inconsistent, and welfare loss from communication may be unavoidable.

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  • Fujiwara, Ippei & Waki, Yuichiro, 2020. "Fiscal forward guidance: A case for selective transparency," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 236-248.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:116:y:2020:i:c:p:236-248
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.10.007
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    Cited by:

    1. Bassetto, Marco, 2019. "Forward guidance: Communication, commitment, or both?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 69-86.
    2. Leonardo Melosi & Francesco Zanetti, 2022. "The Signaling Effects of Fiscal Announcements," Working Paper Series WP 2022-38, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    3. Claudio Columbano, 2022. "Measuring fiscal guidance transparency," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 46(2), pages 261-296.
    4. Ippei Fujiwara & Yuichiro Waki, 2022. "The Delphic forward guidance puzzle in New Keynesian models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 46, pages 280-301, October.
    5. End, Nicolas, 2023. "Big Brother is also being watched: Measuring fiscal credibility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Nicolas End, 2020. "Rousseau's social contract or Machiavelli's virtue? A measure of fiscal credibility," AMSE Working Papers 2042, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    7. Tsuruga, Takayuki & Wake, Shota, 2019. "Money-financed fiscal stimulus: The effects of implementation lag," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 132-151.
    8. Juan Camilo Galvis-Ciro & Juan Camilo Anzoátegui-Zapata & Cristina Isabel Ramos-Barroso, 2022. "The Effect of Communication and Credibility on Fiscal Disagreement: Empirical Evidence from Colombia," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(3), pages 215-238, November.
    9. Ippei Fujiwara & Yuichiro Waki, 2022. "The Delphic forward guidance puzzle in New Keynesian models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 46, pages 280-301, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Private information; Forward guidance; News shock; Bayesian persuasion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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