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Randomness in a mathematical model for the transmission of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)

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  • Arenas, Abraham J.
  • González-Parra, Gilberto
  • Jódar, Lucas

Abstract

In this paper we study the dynamics of the transmission of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in human populations using random differential equation systems. Since initial conditions and some parameters of a RSV mathematical model are subject to some degree of uncertainty, randomness on the model are introduced. In order to modeling these uncertainties some probability distributions functions are assumed for initial conditions and parameters. Monte Carlo method is applied to investigate the effect of parameters and initial conditions uncertainties on the dynamics behavior of the infected and recovered populations. In addition numerical predictions for the future dynamics of RSV transmission in the population from the Spanish region of Valencia are obtained using confidence intervals and expected mean values for the infected and recovered populations are also obtained.

Suggested Citation

  • Arenas, Abraham J. & González-Parra, Gilberto & Jódar, Lucas, 2010. "Randomness in a mathematical model for the transmission of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 80(5), pages 971-981.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:80:y:2010:i:5:p:971-981
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2009.12.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aièllo, O.E & Haas, V.J & daSilva, M.A.A & Caliri, A, 2000. "Solution of deterministic–stochastic epidemic models by dynamical Monte Carlo method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 282(3), pages 546-558.
    2. Cortés, J.C. & Jódar, L. & Villafuerte, L. & Villanueva, R.J., 2007. "Computing mean square approximations of random diffusion models with source term," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 44-48.
    3. N. Scheerlinck & A. Peirs & M. Desmet & A. Schenk & B.M. Nicolaï, 2004. "Modelling Fruit Characteristics During Apple Maturation: A Stochastic Approach," Mathematical and Computer Modelling of Dynamical Systems, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 149-168, June.
    4. Cortés, J.C. & Jódar, L. & Villafuerte, L., 2009. "Random linear-quadratic mathematical models: Computing explicit solutions and applications," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(7), pages 2076-2090.
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    Cited by:

    1. González-Parra, Gilberto & Villanueva-Oller, Javier & Navarro-González, F.J. & Ceberio, Josu & Luebben, Giulia, 2024. "A network-based model to assess vaccination strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic by using Bayesian optimization," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    2. Li, Li, 2015. "Patch invasion in a spatial epidemic model," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 258(C), pages 342-349.

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