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Asian monetary integration: a structural VAR approach

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  • Zhang, Zhaoyong
  • Sato, Kiyotaka
  • McAleer, Michael

Abstract

This paper examines whether forming an optimum currency area (OCA) is viable for the East Asian region by testing the symmetry of underlying structural shocks. A structural vector autoregression (VAR) method is used to identify the underlying shocks and to examine the correlation in shocks for specified sample periods. Decomposition of the variance of shocks and impulse response analysis are used to examine the size and the speed of adjustments to shocks. The results imply that some sub-regions are potential candidates for forming OCAs, as their shocks are correlated and small, and the economies adjust rapidly to such shocks.

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  • Zhang, Zhaoyong & Sato, Kiyotaka & McAleer, Michael, 2004. "Asian monetary integration: a structural VAR approach," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 447-458.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:64:y:2004:i:3:p:447-458
    DOI: 10.1016/S0378-4754(03)00110-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Huh , Hyeon-seung & Park, Cyn-Young, 2013. "Examining the Determinants of Food Prices in Developing Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 370, Asian Development Bank.
    2. Gordon De BROUWER & Arief RAMAYANDI & David TURVEY, 2006. "Macroeconomic Linkages and Regional Monetary Cooperation: Steps Ahead," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 1(2), pages 284-301, December.
    3. Mafusire Albert & Brixiova Zuzana, 2013. "Macroeconomic Shock Synchronization in the East African Community," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 261-280, July.
    4. Dungey, Mardi & Vehbi, Tugrul, 2015. "The influences of international output shocks from the US and China on ASEAN economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 59-71.
    5. de Truchis, Gilles & Keddad, Benjamin, 2013. "Southeast Asian monetary integration: New evidences from fractional cointegration of real exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 394-412.
    6. John Hawkins & Paul Masson, 2003. "Economic aspects of regional currency areas and the use of foreign currencies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Regional currency areas and the use of foreign currencies, volume 17, pages 4-42, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Shafighi, Najla & Gharleghi, Behrooz, 2016. "Feasibility of a currency union in East Asia using the five-variable structural vector autoregressive model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 45-54.
    8. Ephrem Habtemichael Redda & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2017. "Feasibility of Monetary Union in the SADC and EAC: Evidence from Business Cycle Synchronisation," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(36), pages 135-144, November.
    9. Kigabo-Rusuhuzwa, Thomas & Heshmati, Almas, 2022. "Are the East African Community's Countries Ready for a Common Currency?," IZA Discussion Papers 15210, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Arief Ramayandi, 2005. "ASEAN Monetary Cooperation : Issues and Prospects," Finance Working Papers 22028, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    11. Dungey, Mardi & Vehbi, Tugrul & Martin, Charlton, 2014. "VAR modelling in the presence of China’s rise : an application to the Taiwanese economy," Working Papers 2014-09, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    12. Reza Moosavi Mohseni & M. Azali, 2014. "Monetary Integration and Optimum Currency Area in ASEAN+3: What We Need for a New Framework?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 277-285.
    13. Buigut, Steven K. & Valev, Neven T., 2005. "Is the proposed East African Monetary Union an optimal currency area? a structural vector autoregression analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2119-2133, December.
    14. Albert Mafusire & Zuzana Brixiova, 2012. "Working Paper 156 - Macroeconomic Shock Synchronization in the East African Community," Working Paper Series 432, African Development Bank.
    15. Lare-Lantone, Kanfitine & Anoruo, Emmanuel, 2022. "West African Monetary Union and Colonial Economic Ties," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 75(3), pages 323-362.
    16. Foresti Pasquale, 2011. "Is Latin America an Optimum Currency Area? Evidence from a Structural Vector Autoregression Analysis," STUDI ECONOMICI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 0(104), pages 43-68.
    17. T.G. Saji, 2022. "Stock market linkages in Asia. Revisiting Granger causality evidences," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(632), A), pages 151-168, Autumn.

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