IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/matcom/v59y2002i1p207-221.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cointegration analysis of metals futures

Author

Listed:
  • Watkins, Clinton
  • McAleer, Michael

Abstract

The London Metal Exchange (LME) is a centre for spot and futures trading in the main industrially-used non-ferrous metals. In this paper, the market for 3-month LME copper futures contracts is analysed. The risk premium hypothesis and the cost-of-carry (COC) model are the standard theoretical models for pricing futures contracts, but these two models have rarely been estimated within a unified framework for metals futures. Single equation versions of the risk premium hypothesis and the COC model are nested within a general model. If the spot price, futures price, interest rate and stock level variables contain stochastic trends, long-run versions of the general model can be estimated within the cointegration framework. The long-run pricing models are estimated using daily LME copper price data over the period 3 January 1989 to 30 September 1998. Likelihood ratio tests are used to test restrictions on the general model.

Suggested Citation

  • Watkins, Clinton & McAleer, Michael, 2002. "Cointegration analysis of metals futures," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 207-221.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:59:y:2002:i:1:p:207-221
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378475401004098
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philip Hans Franses & Paul Kofman, 1991. "An empirical test for parities between metal prices at the LME," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 729-736, December.
    2. Richard Heaney, 1998. "A Test of the cost‐of‐carry relationship using the London Metal Exchange lead contract," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(2), pages 177-200, April.
    3. Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1989. "Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 2," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 95-131, April.
    4. Larson, Donald Frederick & DEC, 1994. "Copper and the negative price of storage," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1282, The World Bank.
    5. Gang Shyy & Bob Butcher, 1994. "Price equilibrium and transmission in a controlled economy: A case study of the metal exchange in China," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(8), pages 877-890, December.
    6. Moore, Michael J & Cullen, Ursula, 1995. "Speculative Efficiency on the London Metal Exchange," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 63(3), pages 235-256, September.
    7. Hall, S G, 1991. "An Application of the Stochastic GARCH-in-Mean Model to Risk Premia in the London Metal Exchange," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 59(0), pages 57-71, Supplemen.
    8. P Fraser & R Macdonald, "undated". "Spot And Forward Metals Prices: Efficiency And Time Series Behaviour," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 021, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    9. Shernaz Choksi, 1984. "Spot and Futures Prices in Copper: The Speculative Link," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 433-449, March.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    12. Hardouvelis, Gikas A & Kim, Dongcheol, 1995. "Margin Requirements, Price Fluctuations, and Market Participation in Metal Futures," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 659-671, August.
    13. Hsieh, David A & Kulatilaka, Nalin, 1982. "Rational Expectations and Risk Premia in Forward Markets: Primary Metals at the London Metals Exchange," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(5), pages 1199-1207, December.
    14. Sephton, Peter S. & Cochrane, Donald K., 1990. "A note on the efficiency of the London metal exchange," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 341-345, August.
    15. Kevin Bracker & Kenneth L. Smith, 1999. "Detecting and modeling changing volatility in the copper futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 79-100, February.
    16. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    17. Abdur R. Chowdhury, 1991. "Futures market efficiency: Evidence from cointegration tests," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 577-589, October.
    18. Ng, Victor K & Pirrong, Stephen Craig, 1994. "Fundamentals and Volatility: Storage, Spreads, and the Dynamics of Metals Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 203-230, April.
    19. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    20. John Sequeira & MICHAEL McALEER, 2000. "Testing the risk premium and cost-of-carry hypotheses for currency futures contracts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 277-289.
    21. repec:bla:jecsur:v:14:y:2000:i:2:p:215-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. C. Brunetti & C.L. Gilbert, 1996. "Are Metals Prices Becoming More Volatile?," Working Papers 347, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    23. Ying‐Foon Chow & Michael McAleer & John Sequeira, 2000. "Pricing of Forward and Futures Contracts," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 215-253, April.
    24. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:5:p:1075-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1988. "Metals Prices, Efficiency and Cointegration: Some Evidence from the London Metal Exchange," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 235-239, June.
    26. Tim Krehbiel & Lee C. Adkins, 1993. "Cointegration tests of the unbiased expectations hypothesis in metals markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(7), pages 753-763, October.
    27. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1988. "Testing Rational Expectations and Efficiency in the London Metal Exchange," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 50(1), pages 41-52, February.
    28. Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 23-42, March.
    29. Eric C. Chang & Chao Chen & Son‐Nan Chen, 1990. "Risk and return in copper, platinum, and silver futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 29-39, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cagli, Efe Caglar & Taskin, Dilvin & Evrim Mandaci, Pınar, 2019. "The short- and long-run efficiency of energy, precious metals, and base metals markets: Evidence from the exponential smooth transition autoregressive models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    2. Galán-Gutiérrez, Juan Antonio & Martín-García, Rodrigo, 2021. "Cointegration between the structure of copper futures prices and Brexit," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Juan Antonio Galán-Gutiérrez & Rodrigo Martín-García, 2022. "Fundamentals vs. Financialization during Extreme Events: From Backwardation to Contango, a Copper Market Analysis during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-23, February.
    4. Xiangyu Chen & Jittima Tongurai, 2021. "The Relationship Between China’s Real Estate Market and Industrial Metals Futures Market: Evidence from Non-price Measures of the Real Estate Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(4), pages 527-561, December.
    5. Yu, Hui & Ding, Yinghui & Sun, Qingru & Gao, Xiangyun & Jia, Xiaoliang & Wang, Xinya & Guo, Sui, 2021. "Multi-scale comovement of the dynamic correlations between copper futures and spot prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    6. Chen, Xiangyu & Tongurai, Jittima, 2023. "Informational linkage and price discovery between China's futures and spot markets: Evidence from the US–China trade dispute," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    7. Joseph, Anto & Sisodia, Garima & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2014. "A frequency domain causality investigation between futures and spot prices of Indian commodity markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 250-258.
    8. Yang, Linghubo & Zhang, Dongxiang, 2013. "Can futures price be a powerful predictor? Frequency domain analysis on Chinese commodity market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 264-271.
    9. Chen, Xiangyu & Tongurai, Jittima, 2022. "Spillovers and interdependency across base metals: Evidence from China's futures and spot markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    10. P., Srinivasan, 2011. "Price Discovery and Volatility Spillovers in Indian Spot-Futures Commodity Market," MPRA Paper 47412, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Clinton Watkins & Michael McAleer, 2003. "Pricing of Non-ferrous Metals Futures on the London Metal Exchange," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-213, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    2. Clinton Watkins & Michael McAleer, 2004. "Econometric modelling of non‐ferrous metal prices," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(5), pages 651-701, December.
    3. Richard Heaney, 1998. "A Test of the cost‐of‐carry relationship using the London Metal Exchange lead contract," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(2), pages 177-200, April.
    4. Heaney, Richard, 2002. "Does knowledge of the cost of carry model improve commodity futures price forecasting ability?: A case study using the London Metal Exchange lead contract," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 45-65.
    5. An-Sing Chen & James Wuh Lin, 2004. "Cointegration and detectable linear and nonlinear causality: analysis using the London Metal Exchange lead contract," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(11), pages 1157-1167.
    6. Riza Emekter & Benjamas Jirasakuldech & Peter Went, 2012. "Rational speculative bubbles and commodities markets: application of duration dependence test," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(7), pages 581-596, April.
    7. Jerry Coakley & Jian Dollery & Neil Kellard, 2011. "Long memory and structural breaks in commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(11), pages 1076-1113, November.
    8. Barry A. Goss & S. Gulay Avsar, 2013. "Simultaneity, Forecasting and Profits in London Copper Futures," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 79-96, June.
    9. Michael McKenzie & Heather Mitchell & Robert Brooks & Robert Faff, 2001. "Power ARCH modelling of commodity futures data on the London Metal Exchange," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 22-38.
    10. Manolis Kavussanos & Ilias Visvikis & David Menachof, 2005. "The Unbiasedness Hypothesis in the Freight Forward Market: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 241-266, October.
    11. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January.
    12. Alexander Schätz, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects on Emerging Market Sector Indices," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 9(2), pages 131-169, August.
    13. Roselyne Joyeux & George Milunovich, 2010. "Testing market efficiency in the EU carbon futures market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(10), pages 803-809.
    14. Guo, Jin, 2018. "Co-movement of international copper prices, China's economic activity, and stock returns: Structural breaks and volatility dynamics," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 62-77.
    15. Camarero, Mariam & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2013. "Global imbalances and the intertemporal external budget constraint: A multicointegration approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5357-5372.
    16. Hasanov, Fakhri & Mammadov, Fuad, 2010. "The Role of the Fiscal Policy in the Development of the Non-Resource," MPRA Paper 65571, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Jacobson, Tor & Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders & Warne, Anders, 1999. "A VAR Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 77, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    18. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
    19. Lusine Lusinyan & John Thornton, 2011. "Unit roots, structural breaks and cointegration in the UK public finances, 1750-2004," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(20), pages 2583-2592.
    20. Ramiz Rahmanov, 2013. "Stock Market Wealth Effects in Emerging Economies of Eastern Europe: Evidence from Russia and Ukraine," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 5(1).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:59:y:2002:i:1:p:207-221. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/mathematics-and-computers-in-simulation/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.