Why is the Eastern Baltic cod recovering?

The Eastern Baltic cod stock was until recently below safe biological limits and suffered from high fishing pressure. In most recent years, fishing mortality substantially declined and spawner biomass more than tripled. Similar developments have not been observed for any other depleted cod stock in the North Atlantic during the last few decades. This paper investigates relative impacts of changes in different ecological and management-related drivers, which could have contributed to the rapid recovery of the Eastern Baltic cod. The results show that the success to reduce fishing mortality below management target in 2008 was due to a combination of increased recruitment and improved compliance with TAC. The reversal of the negative trend in biomass and rebuilding of the stock to the present level were largely driven by increased recruitment. Harvest control rules of the multi-annual management plan for setting TACs currently maintain the fishing mortality at a low level, which allows the stock to accumulate biomass and further accelerate its recovery. Relatively strong incoming year-classes and recently better control over removals distinguish the Eastern Baltic cod from other depleted European cod stocks, which have not shown similar positive trends in recent years. Sound management measures and compliance to those as well as favourable biological conditions are required for a successful stock recovery.