Jevons paradox and the loss of natural habitat in the Argentinean Chaco: The impact of the indigenous communities’ land titling and the Forest Law in the province of Salta

The Chaco Salteño in Argentina is part of the Dry Chaco ecoregion, the largest neotropical dry forest in the world, and represents an important hotspot for deforestation and natural habitat loss due to agricultural expansion. The purpose of this article is: i) to assess systematically the role of agricultural expansion, intensification and demographics on the loss of natural habitat and ii) to understand how institutional factors contribute to direct the impact of agricultural intensification towards land sparing or Jevons paradox. We use multivariate statistical methods to assess the effect of important institutional changes, including the promulgation of the Forest Law in the Province of Salta and the titling of communal lands to Indigenous Peoples (IPs), on the loss of natural forests, shrublands and grasslands in the Chaco Salteño. Our results show that the approval of the Forest Law in Salta has been ineffective at slowing down the loss of natural habitat and is associated with the emergence of Jevons paradox via the increase in agricultural productivity. Moreover, this new institutional context appears to have increased the pressures on IPs land and encouraged preventive clearing on these lands. Finally, we detect the decreasing importance of livestock heads as drivers of natural habitat loss.