Identifying resource-conscious and low-carbon agricultural development pathways through land use modelling

Increasing agricultural production with current resources and technology may lead to increased GHG emissions. Additionally, large population countries like India face substantial challenges in terms of food demand, agro-ecological heterogeneity, carbon footprint and depleting natural resources, thus increasing the decision complexities for policymakers and planners. We aim to examine the potential of producing more food from available agricultural land with low-carbon (reduced GHG emissions) and resource-conscious (optimal resource use) options. The current study develops multiple calorie production and emission-centric land use using a land use optimization model wherein the calorie production and emission objective, resource and emissions constraints, and food production targets interact across multiple spatial levels. The capabilities of the developed model are demonstrated with a case study in India targeting ten crops (grown over two seasons) covering three food groups (cereals, legumes, and oilseeds). Three hypothetical scenarios for each objective of maximizing calories production (Calories-nation, Calories-group, Calories-crop) and minimizing GHG emissions (Emissions-nation, Emissions-group, Emissions-crop) are developed concerning targets of national crop production (Calories-nation, Emissions-nation), state food groups production (Calories-group, Emissions-group), and state crop production(Calories-crop, Emissions-crop), with different spatial levels of constraints. A maximum growth of 11% in calorie production is observed in Calories-nation while mitigating 2.5% emissions. Besides, the highest emission reduction of around 30% is observed in Emissions-group but with no change in calorie production. Emission scenarios can spare up to 14.8% land and 18.2% water, while calorie production-maximization scenarios can spare a maximum of 4.7% land and 6.5% water. The optimization-based methodology identifies the regions of altered land use by proposing appropriate crop substitution strategies, such as increasing oilseeds in Rajasthan and soybean in east Maharashtra. Many states show conservative production growth and emission reduction with state-level crop production targets (Calories-crop), suggesting crop redistribution within the state alone will not be sufficient unless improved technologies are introduced. The maximum growth and mitigation potential estimated in this study may be affected by climate shocks; therefore, introducing the improved technologies needs to be coupled with a crop redistribution mechanism to design climate-resilient and futuristic land use systems. The proposed land use model can be modified to incorporate climate change effects through consideration of scenarios of changed crop yields or through direct/indirect coupling with dynamic crop simulation models.