IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/juecon/v137y2023ics0094119023000645.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

E-commerce and local labor markets: Is the “Retail Apocalypse” near?

Author

Listed:
  • Chun, Hyunbae
  • Joo, Hailey Hayeon
  • Kang, Jisoo
  • Lee, Yoonsoo

Abstract

The rapid growth of e-commerce is widely blamed for job losses in brick-and-mortar retail. Using geographic variations in online spending, constructed from over 30 billion credit card transactions in Korea, we examine the causal effect of e-commerce on local retail employment. We find that the rise in the share of online spending from 2010 to 2015 decreased county-level retail employment by about 4.9 percent. We also find that employment shifted from offline retail to other local businesses, such as restaurants and personal services. However, the shift in employment was confined to metropolitan areas, falling far short of offsetting employment losses in non-metropolitan areas. Our finding suggests that a Retail Job Apocalypse is likely in certain local labor markets (i.e., non-metropolitan areas).

Suggested Citation

  • Chun, Hyunbae & Joo, Hailey Hayeon & Kang, Jisoo & Lee, Yoonsoo, 2023. "E-commerce and local labor markets: Is the “Retail Apocalypse” near?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:137:y:2023:i:c:s0094119023000645
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2023.103594
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094119023000645
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jue.2023.103594?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neumark, David & Zhang, Junfu & Ciccarella, Stephen, 2008. "The effects of Wal-Mart on local labor markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 405-430, March.
    2. Emek Basker, 2005. "Job Creation or Destruction? Labor Market Effects of Wal-Mart Expansion," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(1), pages 174-183, February.
    3. John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & C. J. Krizan, 2010. "Mom-and-Pop Meet Big-Box: Complements or Substitutes?," NBER Chapters, in: Cities and Entrepreneurship, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bart J. Bronnenberg & Paul B. Ellickson, 2015. "Adolescence and the Path to Maturity in Global Retail," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 113-134, Fall.
    5. Paul Dolfen & Liran Einav & Peter J. Klenow & Benjamin Klopack & Jonathan D. Levin & Larry Levin & Wayne Best, 2023. "Assessing the Gains from E-Commerce," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 342-370, January.
    6. Francine Lafontaine & Jagadeesh Sivadasan, 2020. "The Recent Evolution of Physical Retail Markets: Online Retailing, Big Box Stores, and the Rise of Restaurants," NBER Chapters, in: The Role of Innovation and Entrepreneurship in Economic Growth, pages 291-365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jeffrey R. Brown & Austan Goolsbee, 2002. "Does the Internet Make Markets More Competitive? Evidence from the Life Insurance Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(3), pages 481-507, June.
    8. Cho, Janghee & Chun, Hyunbae & Lee, Yoonsoo, 2015. "How does the entry of large discount stores increase retail employment? Evidence from Korea," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 559-574.
    9. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    10. Jean-François Houde & Peter Newberry & Katja Seim, 2017. "Nexus Tax Laws and Economies of Density in E-Commerce: A Study of Amazon’s Fulfillment Center Network," NBER Working Papers 23361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1488-1542, June.
    12. Ali Hortaçsu & Chad Syverson, 2015. "The Ongoing Evolution of US Retail: A Format Tug-of-War," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 89-112, Fall.
    13. Gebhardt, Georg, 2018. "Measuring the competitive impact of the internet: Evidence from a natural experiment in broadband access," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 84-113.
    14. Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Isaac Sorkin & Henry Swift, 2020. "Bartik Instruments: What, When, Why, and How," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2586-2624, August.
    15. Donghan Shin & Hyunbae Chun, 2023. "The Rise of E-Commerce and the Local Wage Structure: Evidence from the Korean Retail Industry," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 39, pages 315-345.
    16. Lucia Foster & John Haltiwanger & C. J. Krizan, 2006. "Market Selection, Reallocation, and Restructuring in the U.S. Retail Trade Sector in the 1990s," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 748-758, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chun, Hyunbae & Joo, Hailey Hayeon & Kang, Jisoo & Lee, Yoonsoo, 2020. "Diffusion of E-Commerce and Retail Job Apocalypse: Evidence from Credit Card Data on Online Spending," CEI Working Paper Series 2020-7, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Janghee Cho & Hyunbae Chun & Yoonsoo Lee, 2023. "Productivity dynamics in the retail trade sector: the roles of large modern retailers and small entrants," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 291-313, January.
    3. Raffaella Sadun, 2015. "Does Planning Regulation Protect Independent Retailers?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(5), pages 983-1001, December.
    4. Janghee Cho & Hyunbae Chun & Yoonsoo Lee, 2022. "Productivity Dynamics in the Retail Trade Sector: The Roles of Large Modern Retailers and Small Entrants," Working Papers 2202, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    5. Minjee Kim & Tingyu Zhou, 2021. "Does Restricting the Entry of Formula Businesses Help Mom-and-Pop Stores? The Case of Small American Towns With Unique Community Character," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 35(2), pages 157-173, May.
    6. Chung, Jamie, 2023. "The spillover effect of E-commerce on local retail real estate markets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    7. Cho, Janghee & Chun, Hyunbae & Lee, Yoonsoo, 2015. "How does the entry of large discount stores increase retail employment? Evidence from Korea," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 559-574.
    8. Lukas Delgado-Prieto & Andrea Otero-Cortés & Andrés Calderón, 2024. "The Impact of Hard Discount Stores on Local Labor Markets: Evidence from Colombia," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 326, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Alessandro Bonanno & Stephan J. Goetz, 2012. "WalMart and Local Economic Development," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 26(4), pages 285-297, November.
    10. Zhou, Zhongsheng & Li, Zhuo & Du, Shanzhong & Cao, June, 2024. "Robot adoption and enterprise R&D manipulation: Evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    11. Sven-Olov Daunfeldt & Oana Mihaescu & Helena Nilsson & Niklas Rudholm, 2017. "What happens when IKEA comes to town?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(2), pages 313-323, February.
    12. Niklas Rudholm & Yujiao Li & Kenneth Carling, 2022. "How does big-box retail entry affect labor productivity in durable goods retailing? A synthetic control approach," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 69(1), pages 89-117, August.
    13. Rudholm, Niklas & Li, Yuijao & Kenneth, Carling, 2018. "How Does Big-Box Entry Affect Labor Productivity in Durable Goods Retailing? A Synthetic Control Approach," HUI Working Papers 130, HUI Research.
    14. Han, Mengjie & Mihaescu, Oana & Li, Yujiao & Rudholm, Niklas, 2018. "Comparison and one-stop shopping after big-box retail entry: A spatial difference-in-difference analysis," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 175-187.
    15. Clément Bosquet & Paul Maarek & Elliot Moiteaux, 2021. "Routine-biased technological change and wages by education level: Occupational downgrading and displacement effects," Working Papers hal-03270715, HAL.
    16. David Autor & Caroline Chin & Anna M. Salomons & Bryan Seegmiller, 2022. "New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940–2018," NBER Working Papers 30389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Pierre-Louis Vezina, 2017. "Resource discoveries and FDI bonanzas: An illustration from Mozambique," OxCarre Working Papers 199, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    18. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Yan, Jingyang & Wang, Fuhao, 2024. "Impact of population aging on food security in the context of artificial intelligence: Evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    19. Courtemanche, Charles & Carden, Art, 2011. "Supersizing supercenters? The impact of Walmart Supercenters on body mass index and obesity," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 165-181, March.
    20. Maarek, Paul & Moiteaux, Elliot, 2021. "Polarization, employment and the minimum wage: Evidence from European local labor markets," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    E-commerce; Employment; Local labor market; Retail; Credit card;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • L81 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Retail and Wholesale Trade; e-Commerce
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:137:y:2023:i:c:s0094119023000645. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622905 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.