IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v96y2024ics030142072400597x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

High-dimensional private and social optimal policy valuation model for non-renewable natural resource extraction projects for multivariate public policy decisions

Author

Listed:
  • Valer Dávila, José Carlos
  • Galarza, Vilma Gómez
  • Monteverde, Eduardo Court

Abstract

We present a model to find the value and sensitivity function associated with the exploitation of a non-renewable natural resource both for the mining company (private optimum) and for the government (social optimum). Improvements over previous studies are achieved by achieving a multivariate model of optimal policy valuation under a Markov decision process with stopping times based on multiple real options, proposing an iterative algorithm of stochastic approximation with supervised dynamic programming decision under Monte Carlo scenarios until obtaining convergence. Applied to a mining project (Tía María) and extended to the total reserves of a country (Peru), it provides additional decision criteria for fiscal public policy, negotiations, concessions, tax levels, community reparations, as well as benefit estimation, discounted from the potential environmental cost in countries abundant in natural resources that wish to achieve sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Valer Dávila, José Carlos & Galarza, Vilma Gómez & Monteverde, Eduardo Court, 2024. "High-dimensional private and social optimal policy valuation model for non-renewable natural resource extraction projects for multivariate public policy decisions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:96:y:2024:i:c:s030142072400597x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105230
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142072400597X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105230?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Octavio A. F. Tourinho., 1979. "The Option Value of Reserves of Natural Resources," Research Program in Finance Working Papers 94, University of California at Berkeley.
    2. Nikolay Aleksandrov & Raphael Espinoza, 2011. "Optimal Oil Extraction as a Multiple Real Option," OxCarre Working Papers 064, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    3. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. "The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
    4. James L. Paddock & Daniel R. Siegel & James L. Smith, 1988. "Option Valuation of Claims on Real Assets: The Case of Offshore Petroleum Leases," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(3), pages 479-508.
    5. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    6. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 137-137.
    7. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aleksandrov, Nikolay & Espinoza, Raphael & Gyurkó, Lajos, 2013. "Optimal oil production and the world supply of oil," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1248-1263.
    2. Mr. Nikolay Aleksandrov & Mr. lajos Gyurko & Mr. Raphael A Espinoza, 2012. "Optimal Oil Production and the World Supply of Oil," IMF Working Papers 2012/294, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Nikolay Aleksandrov & Raphael Espinoza, 2011. "Optimal Oil Extraction as a Multiple Real Option," OxCarre Working Papers 064, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    4. Lander, Diane M. & Pinches, George E., 1998. "Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 537-567.
    5. Guedes, José & Santos, Pedro, 2016. "Valuing an offshore oil exploration and production project through real options analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 377-386.
    6. Santos, Lúcia & Soares, Isabel & Mendes, Carla & Ferreira, Paula, 2014. "Real Options versus Traditional Methods to assess Renewable Energy Projects," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 588-594.
    7. Insley, M.C. & Wirjanto, T.S., 2010. "Contrasting two approaches in real options valuation: Contingent claims versus dynamic programming," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 157-176, April.
    8. Marco Antonio Guimaraes Dias & Jose Paulo Teixeira, 2010. "Continuous-Time Option Games: Review of Models and Extensions," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 14(3-4), pages 219-254, September.
    9. Bulan, Laarni & Mayer, Christopher & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2009. "Irreversible investment, real options, and competition: Evidence from real estate development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 237-251, May.
    10. Carlos de Lamare Bastian-Pinto & Alexandre Paula Silva Ramos & Luiz de Magalhães Ozorio & Luiz Eduardo Teixeira Brandão, 2015. "Uncertainty and Flexibility in the Brazilian Beef Livestock Sector: the Value of the Confinement Option," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 12(6), pages 100-120, November.
    11. Marcel Philipp Müller & Sebastian Stöckl & Steffen Zimmermann & Bernd Heinrich, 2016. "Decision Support for IT Investment Projects," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 58(6), pages 381-396, December.
    12. Moyen, Nathalie & Slade, Margaret & Uppal, Raman, 1996. "Valuing risk and flexibility : A comparison of methods," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-2), pages 63-74.
    13. Foo, Nam & Bloch, Harry & Salim, Ruhul, 2018. "The optimisation rule for investment in mining projects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 123-132.
    14. Katia Rocha & Marco Antonio Guimarães Dias & José Paulo Teixeira, 2015. "The Timing of Development and the Optimal Production Scale: a Real Option Approach to Oilfield E&P," Discussion Papers 0126, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    15. Guj, Pietro & Chandra, Atul, 2019. "Comparing different real option valuation approaches as applied to a copper mine," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 180-189.
    16. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Linnerud, Kristin & Molnár, Peter & Tandberg Nygaard, Maria, 2016. "Green electricity investment timing in practice: Real options or net present value?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 498-506.
    17. Glover, Kristoffer J. & Hambusch, Gerhard, 2016. "Leveraged investments and agency conflicts when cash flows are mean reverting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-21.
    18. Kuangyuan Zhang & Richard Olawoyin & Antonio Nieto & Andrew N. Kleit, 2018. "Risk of commodity price, production cost and time to build in resource economics," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(6), pages 2521-2544, December.
    19. Sebastian Maier, 2021. "Re-evaluating natural resource investments under uncertainty: An alternative to limited traditional approaches," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 907-937, April.
    20. Tang, Bao-Jun & Zhou, Hui-Ling & Chen, Hao & Wang, Kai & Cao, Hong, 2017. "Investment opportunity in China's overseas oil project: An empirical analysis based on real option approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 17-26.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Valuation of mining projects; Copper; machine learning; Valuation of natural resources; natural resource management; Mining economics; Government policy; Fiscal policy; Sustainable development; Environmental impact assessment; ESG;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:96:y:2024:i:c:s030142072400597x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.