IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v88y2024ics0301420723010553.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Connectedness analysis of oil price shocks, inflation, and exchange rate for the MENA region countries

Author

Listed:
  • Bigerna, Simona

Abstract

The relation among energy prices, exchange rates and inflation has been perturbed in the recent past by both the COVID-19 shock, which resulted in a sharp downturn of the economic activity at the beginning of 2020 and the Ukraine crisis, which resulted in sharp increase in energy prices and then inflation at the beginning of 2022. This is the first paper to analyze this relation for the MENA region, conducting an empirical estimation of a VARX model on monthly data from Jan 2010 to Dec 2022 for the main 11 MENA countries. The model includes asymmetric effects, a detailed contagion analysis, conducted with the methodology à la Pesaran - Pick (2007) to identify periods of high volatility, and presents a spillover analysis à la Diebold - Yılmaz (2014), used to measure the connectedness of the three main variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Bigerna, Simona, 2024. "Connectedness analysis of oil price shocks, inflation, and exchange rate for the MENA region countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:88:y:2024:i:c:s0301420723010553
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104344
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420723010553
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104344?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    2. Rabah Arezki & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2007. "Can the Natural Resource Curse Be Turned into a Blessing? The Role of Trade Policies and Institutions," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/35, European University Institute.
    3. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
    4. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Hakura, Dalia S., 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices: Does the inflationary environment matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 614-639, June.
    5. Simona Bigerna & Carlo Andrea Bollino & Philipp Galkin, 2021. "Balancing energy security priorities: portfolio optimization approach to oil imports," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(5), pages 555-574, January.
    6. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Naidoo, Lutchmee & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Amoo, Nii, 2018. "Implications of oil prices shocks for the major emerging economies: A comparative analysis of BRICS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 76-88.
    7. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas, 2007. "Econometric issues in the analysis of contagion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1245-1277, April.
    8. Li, Songsong & Zhang, Weiqian & Zhang, Wei, 2023. "Dynamic time-frequency connectedness and risk spillover between geopolitical risks and natural resources," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    9. Malik, Farooq & Umar, Zaghum, 2019. "Dynamic connectedness of oil price shocks and exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    10. Sun, Chuanwang & Zhan, Yanhong & Peng, Yiqi & Cai, Weiyi, 2022. "Crude oil price and exchange rate: Evidence from the period before and after the launch of China's crude oil futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    11. Mensi, Walid & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Modeling the frequency dynamics of spillovers and connectedness between crude oil and MENA stock markets with portfolio implications," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 397-419.
    12. Garzon, Antonio J. & Hierro, Luis A., 2021. "Asymmetries in the transmission of oil price shocks to inflation in the eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    13. Mr. Kenji Moriyama, 2010. "The Spillover Effects of the Global Crisison Economic Activity in Mena Emerging Market Countries: An Analysis Using the Financial Stress Index," IMF Working Papers 2010/008, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Roudari, Soheil & Sadeghi, Abdorasoul & Gholami, Samad & Mensi, Walid & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed, 2023. "Dynamic spillovers among natural gas, liquid natural gas, trade policy uncertainty, and stock market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    15. Apergis, Nicholas & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Do structural oil-market shocks affect stock prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 569-575, July.
    16. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    17. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    18. H. Elif Ture & Ali Reza Khazaei, 2022. "Determinants of Inflation in Iran and Policies to Curb It," IMF Working Papers 2022/181, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Lin, Boqiang & Su, Tong, 2020. "Does oil price have similar effects on the exchange rates of BRICS?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    20. Balcilar, Mehmet & Usman, Ojonugwa, 2021. "Exchange rate and oil price pass-through in the BRICS countries: Evidence from the spillover index and rolling-sample analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    21. Ding, Shusheng & Zheng, Dandan & Cui, Tianxiang & Du, Min, 2023. "The oil price-inflation nexus: The exchange rate pass- through effect," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    22. Kumeka, Terver Theophilus & Uzoma-Nwosu, Damian Chidozie & David-Wayas, Maria Onyinye, 2022. "The effects of COVID-19 on the interrelationship among oil prices, stock prices and exchange rates in selected oil exporting economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    23. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
    24. Bigerna, Simona & Bollino, Carlo Andrea & Polinori, Paolo, 2021. "Oil import portfolio risk and spillover volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    25. Hashmi, Shabir Mohsin & Chang, Bisharat Hussain & Bhutto, Niaz Ahmed, 2021. "Asymmetric effect of oil prices on stock market prices: New evidence from oil-exporting and oil-importing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    26. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "A quarter century of inflation targeting & structural change in exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from the first three movers," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 42-61.
    27. Hatipoglu, Emre & Soytas, Mehmet Ali & Belaïd, Fateh, 2023. "Environmental consequences of geopolitical crises: The case of economic sanctions and emissions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    28. M. Hakan Berument & Nildag Basak Ceylan & Nukhet Dogan, 2010. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Growth of Selected MENA1 Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 149-176.
    29. Habibi, Hamidreza & Mohammadi, Hassan, 2022. "Return and volatility spillovers across the Western and MENA countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    30. Considine, Jennifer & Hatipoglu, Emre & Aldayel, Abdullah, 2022. "The sensitivity of oil price shocks to preexisting market conditions: A GVAR analysis," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    31. Emre Hatipoglu & Jennifer Considine & Abdullah AlDayel, 2023. "Unintended Transnational Effects of Sanctions: A Global Vector Autoregression Simulation," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 863-879, October.
    32. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    33. Abdullahi D. Ahmed & Rui Huo, 2020. "Linkages among energy price, exchange rates and stock markets: Evidence from emerging African economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(18), pages 1921-1935, April.
    34. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Mary Leung, 2021. "US trade deficit, a reality check: New evidence incorporating asymmetric and non‐linear effects of exchange rate dynamics," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 818-836, March.
    35. Zhang, Yonggang & Hyder, Mansoor & Baloch, Zulfiqar Ali & Qian, Chong & Berk Saydaliev, Hayot, 2022. "Nexus between oil price volatility and inflation: Mediating nexus from exchange rate," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    36. Philips, Abiodun S. & Akinseye, Ademola B. & Oduyemi, Gabriel O., 2022. "Do exchange rate and inflation rate matter in the cyclicality of oil price and stock returns?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    37. Oloko, Tirimisiyu F. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Adedeji, Abdulfatai A. & Lakhani, Noman, 2021. "Oil price shocks and inflation rate persistence: A Fractional Cointegration VAR approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 259-275.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bigerna, Simona, 2023. "Energy price shocks, exchange rates and inflation nexus," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    2. Sohag, Kazi & Hassan, M. Kabir & Kalina, Irina & Mariev, Oleg, 2023. "The relative response of Russian National Wealth Fund to oil demand, supply and risk shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    3. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Gabauer, David & Gozgor, Giray, 2023. "Oil price shocks and exchange rate dynamics: Evidence from decomposed and partial connectedness measures for oil importing and exporting economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    4. Cheikh, Nidhaleddine Ben & Zaied, Younes Ben & Mattoussi, Wided, 2023. "Oil price shocks in the age of surging inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    5. Claeys, Peter & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014. "Measuring bilateral spillover and testing contagion on sovereign bond markets in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 151-165.
    6. Chandrarin, Grahita & Sohag, Kazi & Cahyaningsih, Diyah Sukanti & Yuniawan, Dani & Herdhayinta, Heyvon, 2022. "The response of exchange rate to coal price, palm oil price, and inflation in Indonesia: Tail dependence analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    7. Han, Lin & Kordzakhia, Nino & Trück, Stefan, 2020. "Volatility spillovers in Australian electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    8. Barunik, Jozef & Krehlik, Tomas, 2016. "Measuring the frequency dynamics of financial and macroeconomic connectedness," FinMaP-Working Papers 54, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    9. Muneer Shaik & Mohd Ziaur Rehman, 2023. "The Dynamic Volatility Connectedness of Major Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Stock Indices: Evidence Based on DCC-GARCH Model," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(1), pages 231-246, March.
    10. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2017. "Oil shocks and stock markets: Dynamic connectedness under the prism of recent geopolitical and economic unrest," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-26.
    11. Beyer, Andreas & Alter, Adrian, 2013. "The dynamics of spillover effects during the European sovereign debt crisis," Working Paper Series 1558, European Central Bank.
    12. Balcilar, Mehmet & Usman, Ojonugwa, 2021. "Exchange rate and oil price pass-through in the BRICS countries: Evidence from the spillover index and rolling-sample analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    13. Umar, Zaghum & Aziz, Saqib & Tawil, Dima, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 induced panic on the return and volatility of precious metals," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    14. Jozef Baruník & Tomáš Křehlík, 2018. "Measuring the Frequency Dynamics of Financial Connectedness and Systemic Risk," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 271-296.
    15. Ozcan Ceylan, 2023. "Analysis of Dynamic Connectedness among Sovereign CDS Premia," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 9(1), pages 33-47, June.
    16. Umar, Zaghum & Jareño, Francisco & Escribano, Ana, 2021. "Oil price shocks and the return and volatility spillover between industrial and precious metals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    17. Ge, S., 2020. "A Revisit to Sovereign Risk Contagion in Eurozone with Mutual Exciting Regime-Switching Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20114, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    18. Szafranek, Karol & Rubaszek, Michał & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "The role of uncertainty and sentiment for intraday volatility connectedness between oil and financial markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    19. Bastianin, Andrea & Casoli, Chiara & Galeotti, Marzio, 2023. "The connectedness of Energy Transition Metals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    20. Si Mohammed, Kamel & Tedeschi, Marco & Mallek, Sabrine & Tarczyńska-Łuniewska, Małgorzata & Zhang, Anqi, 2023. "Realized semi variance quantile connectedness between oil prices and stock market: Spillover from Russian-Ukraine clash," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:88:y:2024:i:c:s0301420723010553. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.