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Geopolitical risk and commodity future returns: Fresh insights from dynamic copula conditional value-at-risk approach

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  • Aloui, Riadh
  • Ben Jabeur, Sami
  • Rezgui, Hichem
  • Ben Arfi, Wissal

Abstract

In this study, we investigated the effects of geopolitical risk (GPR) on commodity future returns by computing the conditional value at risk (CoVaR) and delta CoVaR using time-varying and static bivariate copula models. Our results indicate that there is generally a positive dependence between commodity returns and changes in GPR. Empirical evidence also suggests that there are only upside risk spillovers from GPR to commodity markets. The delta CoVaR results locate the greatest systemic risk in heating oil and maize commodities. Future research avenues, as well as policy and practical implications, are outlined.

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  • Aloui, Riadh & Ben Jabeur, Sami & Rezgui, Hichem & Ben Arfi, Wissal, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and commodity future returns: Fresh insights from dynamic copula conditional value-at-risk approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:85:y:2023:i:pb:s0301420723005846
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103873
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    2. Zhang, Bin & Liu, Zuyao & Wang, Zhaohua & Zhang, Shuang, 2023. "The impact of geopolitical risk on energy security: Evidence from a GMM panel VAR approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity; Tail risk spillover; Systemic risk; Copulas; Delta-coVaR; CoVaR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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