Markovian approach to evaluate circularity in supply chain of non ferrous metal industry

The development of a Circular Economy is essential to the attainment of sustainable development goals. The adoption of circular strategies is either at system level or product level. However, the exploration of circularity of material flow in case of developing economies is still limited in the existing literature. Therefore, the study aims to identify the circularity potential of non-ferrous materials like Aluminium extracted from the products. A case of the Indian Aluminium industry is considered for the study. In proposed study, the Markov Chain method is used as a stochastic modeling technique to explore the degree of circularity in the material flow analysis of aluminium through its various lifecycle stages. The novelty of this paper is two-fold: (1) it gives an insight about the material movement in the circular supply chain depending upon its current state and the time during which it remains in the respective state, and (2) it also gives a brief idea about the circularity of metal flow at different stages such as recycling of Aluminium Circular Supply Chain. From the results of Markov Chain model as applied to Indian Aluminium industry, it is observed that irrespective of the material being in any of the state, most likely it goes to the landfill after completing its average useful life. Further, findings of the study reveal that very low percentage of raw material goes to the recycling stage. Lastly, the reducing trend in the circularity from production to consumption reflects lack of circular initiatives adopted in the downstream sectors of material flow. Markov chain method not only helps the decision maker to identify the preferred strategy but also provides important information about the material movement while adopting a particular circular strategy. This study guide the future studies to effectively measure circularity under all circumstances and across all sectors.